Jun 30, 2022, 08:00 AM ET

In what could end up being the most stacked card of the year, two champions and a slew of rising stars in the promotion will take center stage at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV).

Middleweight champion Israel Adesanya goes for his sixth straight title defense in the main event against No. 1 contender Jared Cannonier. Cannonier enters the fight following a Performance of the Night KO win over Derek Brunson. In the co-main event, Alexander Volkanovski puts his title on the line against Max Holloway for the third time. After a razor-close decision loss in the second fight, Holloway will go for, what is likely, his final shot at Volkanovski for the belt.

Rising prospect Sean O'Malley takes on Pedro Munhoz to open the main card. O'Malley enters his fight with finishes against all three of his past opponents, while Munhoz is trying to avoid a three-fight losing streak.

Where is the betting value? Will the favorites prevail? Veteran MMA coaches Eric Nicksick of Xtreme Couture MMA and Tyson Chartier of New England Cartel break down the two title fights for Marc Raimondi from an inside-the-Octagon perspective, while experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn analyze the card from a betting viewpoint.

Editor's note: Responses have been edited for clarity and brevity.

UFC Middleweight Championship: Israel Adesanya vs. Jared Cannonier

Eric Nicksick, Xtreme Couture MMA coach

Tale of the Tape

	Adesanya	Cannonier
Age	32.9	38.3
Height	76.0	71.0
Reach	80.0	77.5
Stance	Switch	Switch
Last Fight	Feb. 12, 2022	Feb. 12, 2022

How Adesanya wins: He has to use his length and distance management to avoid a firefight with Cannonier. I think that's where Cannonier is going to be dangerous. Izzy's movements and feints are going to be his biggest key. The feint game for him, I think, is going to draw out a lot of the power of Cannonier. Make Cannonier miss big, then slip and move and use his footwork to counter off that.

How Cannonier wins: I don't want to say he has to be unorthodox, but he has to not have the same sort of rhythm and pattern -- throw things and double up, like same-side double-ups. Try to get a read on which way Izzy is slipping his head off line, then throw a hook and follow up with a same-side head kick. I know he doesn't have a lot of that in his arsenal, but he has to try to be erratic in his striking and avoid showing the same pattern over and over. Izzy is too good at collecting data and then countering to attack him repetitively.

X factor: The experience of the championship fights for Izzy is huge. Also, while I don't think Izzy is taking anybody lightly, is he as excited to fight Cannonier as he has been in the past to fight other guys? That could be worrisome, if I'm in that camp. Ultimately, I think just Izzy's enthusiasm is the X factor. Which Izzy are we gonna see? When he's on his game, he's a destroyer. But, if it's a Yoel Romero fight, where he decided, 'I'm just gonna do whatever and barely win to get through,' this could be a boring fight. If he's the Izzy we all know and love, he could come out and make this a f---ing show. I think we'll know what we're in for during the first round.

Prediction: Izzy by decision. I would love to say Izzy by finish, but I just feel like he does enough to win. I don't want to say he fights safe, but I think Izzy by decision is a safe play.

Betting analysis

UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier

Stand-up striking offense	Adesanya	Cannonier
Total knockdown ratio (Knockdowns/times knocked down)	12:0	5:5
Distance knockdown rate	5.1%	3.4%
Head jab accuracy	34%	41%
Head power accuracy	33%	33%
Standup strike ratio (Attempted vs. opp. attempted)	1.1	0.8
Wrestling and grappling
TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch	0.02	0.04
Takedown Accuracy	0%	50%
Advances per takedown/top control	1.5	2.5
Opponent takedown attempts	81	58
Takedown defense	78%	66%
Share of fight time in ground control	21%	9%
Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground	0.17	0.00
Table compiled by Reed Kuhn

Kuhn: Adesanya to win (-440), fight does not go the distance. In nearly six hours of Octagon time, Adesanya and Cannonier have combined for just two takedowns landed, so we can expect two willing participants in a striking duel. And, while they have similar accuracy and both favor powerful strikes, Adesanya is able to dictate the pace better. He also boasts a better knockdown rate.

Adesanya will be facing a smaller and older opponent, who has been knocked down five times in prior UFC fights. Granted, most of those were when he competed in a larger division, but cumulative damage at that age opens the door to an eventual finish. A prop on Adesanya by TKO returns plus money, and appears to be the most likely outcome.

UFC featherweight championship: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway

Tyson Chartier, New England Cartel head coach

Tale of the Tape

	Volkanovski	Holloway
Age	33.8	30.6
Height	66.0	71.0
Reach	71.5	69.0
Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox
Last Fight	April 9, 2022	Nov. 13, 2021

How Volkanovski wins: He has to come out hard early. I think he has to stop Max's forward pressure and get back on his leg kicks. He didn't fully abandon them in the second fight, but he definitely didn't use them as much as he did in the first fight when they were a huge key to his game. In the second fight, Alex came out slow and let Max dictate the first couple of rounds. Alex didn't win that fight; Max lost it in the late rounds when his pressure tapered off. He has to come out early and take control of the fight and make Max fight from the back foot.

How Holloway wins: He has to come out exactly like he did in the second fight. Establish pressure early, be creative. Use his kicks. He had a lot of success in the second fight that way. It's hard for Alex to establish his leg kicks if he's getting backed up, which is what worked for Max in the beginning rounds of the second fight. It's also what he did well against Yair Rodriguez. Max can't take his foot off the gas pedal.

X factor: Which Max shows up? If he comes out and puts the pressure on, I see him having a lot of success. In the Yair fight, you saw bits and pieces of it. He'd look unbelievable at certain points, then kind of take a break and let Yair back into the fight. It wasn't so much that Yair looked great as it was Max pacing himself. If Max comes in and says, 'I want to prove a point and establish himself as the best featherweight of all time, he'll have success. If he doesn't do that, it's a great, competitive fight.

Prediction: A close decision for Holloway. My heart wants Alex to win for the division to move on from this rivalry, since I coach featherweight contender Calvin Kattar. But, I think Max has a point to prove. If he comes out and gets in Alex's face early, I feel like he will win the fight. I don't see how he's going to put Alex away, though. He's so durable, tough, creative and hard to hit clean. If Max were to finish, it would be a head kick or something like that.

Betting analysis

UFC 276: Volkanovski vs. Holloway 3

Stand-up striking offense	Volkanovski	Holloway
Total knockdown ratio (Knockdowns/times knocked down)	5:1	8:0
Distance knockdown rate	1.8%	0.6%
Head jab accuracy	45%	33%
Head power accuracy	45%	42%
Standup strike ratio (Attempted vs. opp. attempted)	1.1	1.3
Wrestling and grappling
TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch	0.42	0.03
Takedown Accuracy	37%	67%
Advances per takedown/top control	0.7	3.3
Opponent takedown attempts	27	150
Takedown defense	70%	84%
Share of fight time in ground control	83%	50%
Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground	0.10	0.28
Table compiled by Reed Kuhn

Kuhn: Small lean Volkanovski to win (-210). Not much has changed since the last 10 rounds that Volkanovski and Holloway booked in the cage together. We know we're getting two excellent strikers, who are durable and can maintain a five-round pace. The only real question is whether Holloway has made adjustments that can overtake the only opponent he has faced with one extra gear.

Though Volkanovski is slightly older, it's Holloway who has absorbed far more damage. Holloway has absorbed 1,018 distance head strikes, way more than Jim Miller, Robbie Lawler and even Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone, who all compete on the same card with longer careers. It's hard to pick against Holloway in a five-rounder, knowing he can reach a pace that few can follow. Yet, not enough has changed to fade Volkanovski. The price was much more affordable for the favorite early on, but there's very little value left. Unless prices retract, it's a pass as some of those rounds will be close.

Best bets on the rest of the card

Jalin Turner stuns Jamie Mullarkey via TKO

Jalin Turner wins the UFC 272 featured prelim fight of the night over Jamie Mullarkey.

Women's Flyweight: Jessica Eye vs. Maycee Barber

Kuhn: Barber to win (-260). In a fight that's likely to play out on the cards, consider taking Barber with a massive youth advantage against Eye. Barber started out hit or miss, but we shouldn't expect 20-year-olds to be their best in the UFC. Now, with more experience and maturity, she should bring more skill and athleticism into the cage against a fighter who appears to be fading.

They have similar striking metrics, though Barber gets a slight edge in accuracy and defense. She also has slightly better ground metrics. Neither has scored a finish in years, so favor Barber to pile up a few more points round-to-round.

Bantamweight: Pedro Munhoz vs. Sean O'Malley

Editor's Picks

Kuhn: Munhoz to win (+240). The crowd in Vegas, as well as the betting market, might be firmly behind O'Malley, but there's usually value in betting against hype. His matchup with Munhoz will be a true litmus test for O'Malley as a contender. Munhoz doesn't have the best record of late, but those losses all came by decision to title-caliber opponents. Munhoz can hang with the best, and his stats, if anything, are deflated by continuously tough matchups. O'Malley looks excellent on paper, and even in comparison, but it's hardly the same strength of schedule. O'Malley's precision striking is a big threat to the historically loose defense of Munhoz. But, there's value in Munhoz as the underdog here, if he can make this a scrap and not let O'Malley settle into his rhythm.

Parker: O'Malley to win. (-300). This fight has fireworks in the making. We know "Suga" Sean will be looking to put his striking on display and keep Munhoz at a distance to avoid his powerful overhand rights. For Munhoz, an elite jiu-jitsu practitioner, if he can get the fight to the ground, he could pull off the upset. However, both men are, likely, going to be looking to make a statement by getting the finish. I believe the combinations, counterstriking and volume of O'Malley will be too much for Munhoz.

Lightweight: Jalin Turner vs. Brad Riddell

Parker: Turner to win (-150). Riding a four-fight win streak, Turner looks to continue his dominance over striking specialist Riddell. Look for Turner to use his length to keep Riddell from getting close enough to land anything powerful. Turner also has the option to take the fight to mat if he feels the striking isn't going in his favor. I expect this fight to go similar to his last one against Jamie Mularkey.

Welterweight: Ian Garry vs. Gabe Green

Parker: Garry to win (-175). In his last fight, Green had a comeback KO that was one for the ages. However, in a fight with Garry, if he falls behind I don't think he'll be able to catch up on the scorecards. As much as we know Garry for being a knockout artist, he is a high IQ fighter and he showed it with his decision win in his last fight. Look for Garry to stay poised and use distance striking to keep Green at bay to avoid Green's power. I expect Garry to be defensively sound and use his combinations to pick apart Green throughout the fight.

Jim Miller vs. Donald Cerrone

Parker: Miller inside the distance. This is a rematch that we didn't expect, but are more than happy to have. With his last two wins coming by TKO, I expect Miller to carry that momentum into this fight with "Cowboy" and bring the pressure early. I think Cerrone's best days are behind him and with three of his last five fights being losses and by TKO. I see the same result happening here as Miller will be too aggressive for Cerrone to handle.

Ufc 276 expert picks best bets adesanya cannonier volkanovski vs holloway 3

2024-12-12 04:03:36