Apr 20, 2023

Rising heavyweight contender Sergei Pavlovich takes on Curtis Blaydes in the main event of this weekend's UFC Fight Night. The event is at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with prelims at 4 p.m. on ESPN+).

Pavlovich, ranked No. 3 in ESPN's divisional rankings, is on a five-fight winning streak, with each of his wins coming via first-round knockout. Blaydes, ranked just behind Pavlovich, is riding a three-fight winning streak with back-to-back wins by knockout.

Marc Raimondi spoke to New England Cartel head coach Tyson Chartier to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN's betting experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn add their insights and analysis on the main events and other intriguing bets they like on the card.

Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.

Heavyweight: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Curtis Blaydes

Tyson Chartier, New England Cartel head coach

Tale of the Tape

	Pavlovich	Blaydes
Age	30.9	32.2
Height	75.0	76.0
Reach	84.0	80.0
Stance	Southpaw	Orthodox
Last Fight	Dec. 3, 2022	Jul. 23, 2022

How Pavlovich wins: He has got to get in Blaydes' face. Get respect early to back Blaydes up. That could lead him to panic striking, which he does not want to do. Then the panic wrestling will come out and Blaydes won't be setting up his shots. He'll be more worried about what Pavlovich is doing and keeping him on his heels. As soon as fighters start taking damage, their punches are loopier. They start shooting from further away. And that's where Pavlovich can capitalize.

How Blaydes wins: He's got to patiently pressure. You don't want to rush in like he did against Derrick Lewis. And he's got to mix in takedowns. He can't just stand toe-to-toe with this guy. Blaydes has to take the center of the mat, put Pavlovich on his back leg a bit, and then mix in some takedowns. Obviously, if he gets on top, that's his ultimate path to victory. Blaydes has gotten knocked out by heavy hitters before, so that's the concern. He's got to hold up against these guys. But he's also fought guys like Junior dos Santos, Jairzinho Rozenzstruik and Chris Daukaus and they all hit hard. It's heavyweight. Sometimes you're going to get caught.

X factor: Pavlovich's takedown defense. Will he be able to stop the first couple of takedown attempts? And if not, will he be able to get up? If he struggles to get up after the first takedown, or if he can't defend the first takedown, that will indicate what could happen.

Prediction: I'm going with Blaydes on this one. I just think that Blaydes -- other than getting knocked out against Lewis and Francis Ngannou -- is winning all these fights. I know Pavlovich has the hot hand right now, but I think Blaydes is on a good streak.

Betting analysis

UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes

Stand-up striking offense	Pavlovich	Blaydes
Total knockdown ratio (Knockdowns/times knocked down)	6:0	2:3
Distance knockdown rate	8.0%	2.3%
Head jab accuracy	39%	28%
Head power accuracy	51%	30%
Standup strike ratio (Attempted vs. opp. attempted)	1.5	1.2
Wrestling and grappling
TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch	0.17	1.32
Takedown Accuracy	0%	54%
Advances per takedown/top control	NA	0.6
Opponent takedown attempts	3	6
Takedown defense	67%	33%
Share of fight time in ground control	35%	99%
Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground	0.00	0.00
Table compiled by Reed Kuhn

Kuhn: Blaydes to win (-175). Pavlovich is riding a five-fight win streak that has taken fewer than 10 minutes of total fight time. His six-fight UFC career adds up to just 14 minutes in the Octagon, and that isn't even the most absurd number in his profile. His power striking accuracy and knockdown rate suggest that he might be the division's new most dangerous standup striker, following Ngannou's departure. But can he deliver a knockout against a grappler?

Blaydes is no stranger to facing hazardous oppositions and has the opposite career profile of Pavlovich, complete with a long history of fight time and plenty of fights that went the distance. This will be a stylistic mismatch, with Blaydes wasting no time trying to get the fight to the ground. Pavlovich has only faced three takedown attempts so far, but he lost in his debut when he was taken down by Alistair Overeem and finished by strikes. Blaydes will hope to slip the first few exchanges and exploit the same game plan. And if it's not already obvious, I generally lean toward the wrestler in striker versus grappler matchups.

Best bets on the rest of the card

Jeremiah Wells ruins Mike Mathetha's UFC debut

Jeremiah Wells spoils the debut of Mike Mathetha with a rear-naked choke in Round 1.

Welterweight: Jeremiah Wells vs. Matthew Semelsberger

Parker: Fight does not go the distance. Riding a three-fight win streak, all by finish, Wells has shown that he is as well-rounded as he is intense. Both fighters like to stand and trade. Can Semelsberger handle the early pressure from Wells? If he can, can Wells' gas tank hold up? The answer to those questions is that this fight will not go the distance. Either Wells will get another finish on his resume, or Semelsberger will weather the early storm and get a finish late in the fight.

Women's featherweight: Karol Rosa vs. Norma Dumont

Kuhn: Dumont to win (-110); Over 2.5 rounds for parlays. Dumont opened as a slight underdog, but lines have evened out and, in some cases, flipped. Statistically, it's as even as the market suggests. The two are evenly matched in most offensive metrics and will likely spend most of the fight on their feet.

Editor's Picks

The biggest difference in performance metrics is on defense, where Rosa has shown poor head strike avoidance, while Dumont has historically been much better than average. That difference could add up for three rounds, leading to Dumont edging the scorecards by inflicting more damage. Neither is known for submissions or one-punch power, so expect this to be a close decision, with a little value on Dumont as the more technical striker.

Parker: Fight goes the distance. Against Rosa, if Dumont doesn't dictate the pace and throw volume with her strikes, she could have to spend too much time defending. This fight is a coin flip via the odds, but the best play is taking the fight to go to a decision. Rosa's past six fights have gone to decision. Dumont's last five fights have gone to decision as well. The line might be a little high to play on the moneyline, so feel free to add it to your parlay.

Women's flyweight: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Karine Silva

Parker: Silva to win (-200). Cachoeira is on a two-fight winning streak, but stylistically this matchup doesn't favor her. Cachoeira carries power in her hands and has solid durability, but Silva's volume on the feet will overwhelm her. For Silva, the path to least resistance is to take the fight to the ground to avoid the power of Cachoeira. Cachoeira does not have good takedown defense and her submission defense is equally flawed. I expect Silva to finish this fight on the ground once it gets there.

Ufc fight night curtis blaydes vs sergei pavlovich expert picks best bets

2023-04-28 09:31:46