Who's the NBA's All-Star Game GOAT?

As we celebrate the league's 75th anniversary season during All-Star Weekend in Cleveland -- albeit just the 71st All-Star Game, because it wasn't inaugurated until 1951 or played after the lockout in 1998-99 -- this feels like an appropriate time to look back on All-Star history, too.

Although there's certainly overlap between the NBA's greatest players and the top All-Star performers, some players have tended to take the All-Star Game more seriously than others. Or perhaps in the modern era they're just better at conserving energy through the parties and media obligations that come with a modern All-Star Weekend. So let's take a look at who's done that the best over their careers.

Throughout the NBA season, I answer your questions about the latest, most interesting topics in basketball. You can tweet me directly at @kpelton, tweet your questions using the hashtag #peltonmailbag or email them to peltonmailbag@gmail.com.

This week's All-Star-themed mailbag also takes a look at the likelihood of players to make an All-NBA team despite not being chosen an All-Star.

"Which player has had the best career in terms of All-Star Games?"

-- James

I think there are seven players (listed below in alphabetical order) who can make a case for All-Star Game GOAT.

Kobe Bryant

Along with Bob Pettit, Bryant was one of two players to win the MVP award -- now named in his honor -- four times. (Pettit's overall All-Star track record wasn't as impressive; his MVP wins were surrounded by some poor-shooting clunkers.) Having played in 15 All-Star Games, the third-most ever, Kobe is the all-time leader in steals (38) and second in points (290).

Kevin Durant

Among players who have played in more than five All-Star Games (ruling out active leader Giannis Antetokounmpo), Durant's scoring average of 25.0 PPG is the best. The impressive record of Durant's teams shows he is not just putting up empty stats during an era where All-Star scoring has trended upward.

LeBron James

As LeBron prepares for his record-tying 18th All-Star Game (which will match Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for the most ever and pass him in terms of starts), he's putting career records into the stratosphere. James already has outscored Bryant by 99 points and ranks third all time in All-Star assists. Yet my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric shows LeBron as less valuable in All-Star Games than the other GOAT contenders, in part because he has accumulated relatively few steals.

Magic Johnson

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My first All-Star memory is Magic's triumphant 1992 games months after HIV forced him into retirement. Having not played a competitive game since the preseason, Johnson had 25 points and nine assists, winning the second of his two MVP trophies. Remarkably, it's Johnson who accumulated the most WARP in 11 All-Star Games -- though his teams were surprisingly unsuccessful.

Michael Jordan

An All-Star MVP three times, Jordan submitted perhaps the single greatest All-Star performance when he scored 40 points on 17-of-23 shooting in 1988, back when there was a modicum of defense played in All-Star Games. Only Anthony Davis in 2017 (when he scored a record 52 points on 26-of-39 shooting) has had a better game score. Yet Jordan had six All-Star Games where he posted a Game Score in the single digits, and his two poor shooting efforts with the Washington Wizards (13-of-40 combined) helped tank his WARP.

Chris Paul

The archetypal All-Star, Paul will have fun setting up his teammates for 3 1/2 quarters and play to win down the stretch -- which his teams typically have. He surpassed Magic as the all-time All-Star assists leader last year and ranks fifth in career steals.

Oscar Robertson

Because turnovers weren't tracked during Robertson's career, he doesn't have a WARP rating. His game score is uncertain because it also doesn't include steals and blocks but he still ranks fifth all time. And the remarkable thing is how often Robertson's teams won. He has the best All-Star winning percentage of any player with more than four appearances (Russell Westbrook is next at 8-1).

Yes, most of those came when Robertson was paired with the Celtics and often Wilt Chamberlain in the East, which won seven out of eight matchups between 1963 and 1970. However, Robertson's West teams went 4-0 during his first two All-Star Games (before Cincinnati moved from the East to the West in 1962-63) and final two with the Milwaukee Bucks.

Picking an All-Star GOAT, as with the real debate, is largely about what you choose to value. LeBron holds the career records, Durant and Magic have the highest average level of play, and Oscar has the most team success. When it comes to balancing all of those factors along with MVP trophies, however, the nod goes to Kobe.

It's only fitting: The All-Star MVP award is named after the All-Star GOAT.

"The day after the All-Star reserves were announced, I made a bet with two friends who believe that Pascal Siakam's recent momentum this season will lead to an All-NBA appearance. I bet against that. Seemed fairly obvious to me, considering Siakam hardly even got All-Star consideration. Anyway, it got me thinking, how common is it for players to make the more exclusive 15-person All-NBA Team when they didn't make the 24-person All-Star Game in that same season?"

-- Nathaniel

I'd say it's more common than you might think. Over the 32 seasons with both three All-NBA Teams (introduced in 1988-89) and an All-Star Game, there's been precisely the same number of All-NBA picks who weren't All-Stars -- one per season.

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For a period of time, this had to do with the need to find three All-NBA centers -- particularly after the All-Star Game did away with center as a separate position starting in 2012-13. Of the dozen All-NBA picks who weren't All-Stars in the 2010s, eight were centers, including 2016 first-team pick DeAndre Jordan.

Aside from that, players who deal with injuries in the first half of the season are strong candidates to make All-NBA without being All-Stars. That was the case last season with Jimmy Butler of the Miami Heat, who missed 14 of his team's first 35 games but just six in the second half. Siakam could fall into that same category, having missed 13 of the Toronto Raptors' first 30 games following shoulder surgery but none of the last 27.

I'd still make the same bet as you at even odds. I think five forward spots will likely go to Antetokounmpo, Butler, Durant, James and Jayson Tatum. As for the sixth, it should be DeMar DeRozan, voted an All-Star starter in the backcourt but likely to get more media votes at forward.

One of those players would probably have to miss an extended period after the break for Siakam to pass them. And Siakam would also be competing with All-Stars Khris Middleton and Andrew Wiggins for any spot that opens up, as well as players sliding down from guard or up from center (where the ballot is more crowded) and other non-All-Stars like Jaylen Brown and Anthony Davis.

That said, I wouldn't make plans for your winnings just yet.

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2023-08-25 07:30:40