Apr 17, 2023

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Going first has advantages. By agreeing to his new five-year, $255 million contract extension right before the start of their offseason program, Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles have capped the number of questions about when and whether the deal would get done at zero. No distractions. No animosity. No dragging it out.

Could Hurts have secured more money or more guarantees by waiting until one or more of Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson did their deals? Almost assuredly yes. But getting it done and out of the way fits with what we know about Hurts. He's all about the work. If he told his agent to get it done before the start of the offseason program, it's likely because (A) the deal was plenty sweet as it was and (B) he didn't want it hanging over his and his team's effort to get back to the Super Bowl. It's a win-win. The Eagles get their biggest piece of offseason business out of the way early, and Hurts can call himself the highest-paid player in the NFL -- at least for a few weeks or months.

Because more quarterback deals are likely coming this offseason. Hurts' 2020 draft-mates Burrow, Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa are all extension-eligible for the first time. Jackson is still looking for a long-term extension with the Ravens -- or somebody. Dak Prescott is in line for an extension with the Cowboys. At some point, the Chiefs are probably going to rework Patrick Mahomes' deal so he's making more than any of these guys. (And who could blame them?)

So, since one of the big questions every time a deal like this gets done is how it will affect the similar deals to come, let's take a look at a couple of those.

Start with those 2020 draft-mates. Let's leave Tagovailoa out of it, since his health concerns create a somewhat isolated circumstance that likely will lead the Dolphins to wait before committing long term. (They already picked up his 2024 fifth-year option, so they have time.) The Bengals and Chargers have said they intend to get Burrow and Herbert extended, so let's presume those extensions will happen at some point this offseason, which would follow the examples set in previous years by Mahomes, Josh Allen and others.

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Burrow and Hurts make similar cases, as each has led his team to a Super Bowl . Burrow and his agents likely will be able to view Hurts' $51 million average annual salary as a floor in negotiations, since Hurts did his deal first and it stands to reason that a similar deal done later would seek to move the market forward. Herbert and his agents likely will take a similar approach, although the fact that the Chargers have made the playoffs only once and have not reached a Super Bowl in his first three years could lead to him coming in a little bit behind Hurts and Burrow. (Notice I said "could," not "will" or "should." Negotiations like these can be unpredictable.)

But there are a couple of key elements to keep in mind when comparing Burrow's and Herbert's projected deals to Hurts'. The first is guaranteed money. Hurts' deal comes with $179.3 million guaranteed against injury. Of that, $110 million is fully guaranteed at signing. The injury guarantee is the second-highest ever, behind only Deshaun Watson's fully guaranteed $230 million. The full guarantee at signing is the third-highest ever, behind Watson's $230 million and Russell Wilson's $124 million.

Will Burrow or Herbert push for higher guarantees in addition to a higher average salary? Their teams aren't historically among the most free-spending franchises in the league, and, especially in Burrow's case, the team will surely stress the point that taking a little less could help the team retain soon-to-be-paid stars such as the Bengals' Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase. The degree to which the player is willing to work with the team on structure is a big key to getting these deals done. Hurts' signing bonus, for example, is a relatively modest $23.294 million, which allows the Eagles to keep his 2023 cap hit under $10 million.

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The second thing to keep in mind is length of the deal. Hurts' deal runs through 2028 -- a five-year extension tacked onto the end of his rookie contract, which was set to expire after 2023. But Hurts was not a first-round pick. Burrow and Herbert were, which means their teams hold $29.504 million fifth-year options on them for 2024. That money will be fully guaranteed the minute the teams exercise those options (as they surely will, unless the extensions are done by the early-May option deadline). If Burrow and/or Herbert extends through 2028, the 2024 salary will have to be dealt with -- either folded into the new deal or wiped away and replaced with all-new money.

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Hurts had no 2024 salary on the books, and he was due just $4.304 million in 2023. His case differs significantly from those of Burrow and Herbert. Through three years in the league, Hurts has earned a total of about $4.6 million, while Burrow has earned about $30.64 million and Herbert about $22.34 million.

Which brings us to Jackson, the biggest contract-related story in the NFL at the moment.

The 32nd pick in the 2018 draft, Jackson earned a grand total of $9.4 million in his first four seasons and another $23.016 million in his fifth-year option season of 2022. This offseason, the Ravens designated Jackson their franchise player, which means he'd earn $32.416 million if he can't get an extension signed.

The problem, according to multiple sources, is that Jackson has been seeking guaranteed money in excess of that $230 million Watson got on his deal last year with Cleveland. Jackson was the unanimous league MVP in 2019 and has not run into any trouble off the field, and he justifiably believes he should get more than Watson, who has never won MVP and was suspended for the first 11 games of the 2022 season for his off-field conduct.

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So far, the Ravens have not been willing to meet Jackson's demands for guaranteed money, and frankly the Hurts deal isn't likely to change that. Had Hurts been able to get $230 million or more guaranteed, it would have helped Jackson's case. But with Hurts' injury guarantee more than $50 million behind that (and his full guarantee less than 50% of it), Watson's deal remains one the Ravens can identify as an outlier.

The $51 million average salary doesn't matter much here. All of these deals always felt likely to come in over $50 million a year, and sources say the Ravens' offers to Jackson have reflected a willingness to pay him an average salary at or near the top of the market. The hang-up between Jackson and the Ravens has always been the guaranteed money. And until someone else comes along and does a contract like Watson's, Baltimore will be able to tell Jackson the Browns were being ridiculous and the real QB market is reflected in the Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and now Hurts deals.

To be clear: Hurts' deal is a great one and is a continuation of one of the more encouraging and uplifting NFL success stories of the past half-decade. It represents a solid step forward that should help any top-end quarterback looking to do an extension in the coming months or years. And it includes some really nice touches -- most notably the full no-trade clause that will give Hurts some control over his own destiny should circumstances change (as they did very quickly with his predecessor, Carson Wentz). But it's not -- at least in terms of guaranteed money -- the market-rattling deal you were hoping for if you're Jackson. And given what we expect from the Burrow and Herbert deals to come, it doesn't seem as if Jackson is going to get the help he needs from his peers any time soon.

Eagles quarterback jalen hurts contract yields predictions future nfl qb deals

2023-04-26 05:31:35