Apr 11, 2023

Time for mock draft No. 4 ahead of the 2023 NFL draft, going through the first two rounds and finding prospect-to-team fits for the top 63 picks. Most of the top free agents found new teams weeks ago, though there are still a few left on the board and wideout Odell Beckham Jr. just got his deal Sunday. We have a great idea of the draft needs for all 32 teams.

With just over two weeks remaining until Carolina is on the clock -- the draft begins at 8 p.m. ET on April 27 on ESPN, ABC and ESPN+ -- there are some big changes since my last mock draft, which went through the first 31 picks (Reminder: here's why there are only 31 in Round 1.) I have some risers and some fallers, and I projected two trades -- one in the top five, and one at the end of the first round.

Let's get into my predictions for pick Nos. 1 through 63. I also have an update to my Big Board rankings, both my top 25 prospects overall and the top 10 at every position. Check out the "SportsCenter" Special: Mel Kiper's NFL Mock Draft 4.0. Todd McShay and I are also doing a draft-centric mailbag show on Thursday at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2.

coverage:
McShay's latest mock draft
Consensus position rankings
Five needs for all 32 teams

1. Carolina Panthers (via CHI)

Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

Young or C.J. Stroud? Stroud or Young? I think the Panthers are homing in on one of these passers after they traded up to No. 1. In my post-free agency mock draft, I went with Stroud, who fits the physical mold of quarterbacks new Carolina coach Frank Reich has worked with over the past decade. I've heard too many rumblings about the front office and coaches liking Young, though, and my pals Chris Mortensen and Adam Schefter believe Young is the guy as well.

If Young is indeed the pick, he could be a superstar. He's my top-ranked signal-caller, just ahead of Will Levis. There is some risk because of his stature, however. At 5-foot-10, 204 pounds, he will be the third under-6-foot QB drafted in Round 1, joining Kyler Murray (2019) and Johnny Manziel (2014). He's a much different player from those two, relying more on his pinpoint accuracy and pocket mobility than his scrambling ability. General manager Scott Fitterer got very little from his 2022 draft class, so he has to hit a home run here.

Editor's Picks

2. Houston Texans

C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

There's not much buzz about the quarterback Houston would prefer in this class, but I have little doubt new coach DeMeco Ryans is going to get one here. This class of passers is just too strong at the top. As I've mentioned before, the Texans need a face of the franchise to sell their rebuild to fans. Stroud is a smooth thrower with advanced mechanics in a 6-3 frame. He has all the tools to be an All-Pro passer -- except for the talent around him. That's where Houston, which also owns the No. 12 pick in this draft, needs to help. I expect general manager Nick Caserio to be aggressive in trying to add playmakers in the draft and also in May, when a few veterans hit the open market.

Projected trade: Titans jump eight spots

Here's a fun deal to think about. Tennessee's quarterback need has gone under the radar, but Ryan Tannehill is a free agent in 2024 and Malik Willis, who dropped all the way to Round 3 in last year's draft, really struggled as a rookie, even getting benched late in the season for journeyman Joshua Dobbs. Is it possible the Titans already know Willis is not their QB of the future?

Tennessee would have to give up a lot in this trade -- the closest recent comp is the Miami-San Francisco swap in 2021. The 49ers acquired the No. 3 overall pick in that draft for the No. 12 selection, future first-round picks in the 2022 and 2023 drafts and a third-rounder in 2022. In this mock scenario, Tennessee would send Arizona picks Nos. 11 and 41 in this draft, plus a 2024 first-round selection and likely either a 2025 first- or second-rounder as well. And don't forget new Titans general manager Ran Carthon joined the organization from San Francisco.

For the Cardinals, who have one of the league's worst rosters and don't need a quarterback, this trade would be about gathering draft capital and speeding up their rebuild, adding premium picks in this draft and down the road. This might be their best-case scenario.

3. Tennessee Titans (via mock trade with ARI)

Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

Here's that quarterback for the Titans. The 6-4 Richardson might have the highest ceiling of any prospect in this class. If he puts together all of his tools and isn't rushed into being the guy in Week 1, he could be a star. It's a big "if," though, because he was extremely inconsistent as a passer in college and has a ways to go to clean up his mechanics. Now, the hope for Tennessee is that it can coach him up, unlock some of those traits and let him show his dual-threat ability. And it could sit him behind Tannehill in Year 1.

As we saw last season when Tannehill got injured, though, Willis was forced to step in, and there's no doubt it hurt his development. Willis wasn't ready to play. Richardson needs time as well, and I hope whichever team takes him understands that.

4. Indianapolis Colts

Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

I'm sticking with Levis to Indianapolis here. General manager Chris Ballard could get lucky with my second-ranked quarterback still on the board. Why do I like Levis over Stroud and Richardson? Because of his ability both in and out of the pocket. In 2021, when Levis was really on, he made "wow" throws to every part of the field and also ran for nine scores. Last season, while dealing with injuries and after losing a lot of talent around him, he forced too many throws and was inconsistent. I think Levis' floor is high, and he'll be able to start immediately for the Colts.

By the way, if you're wondering how often quarterbacks have been taken with the first four picks in a single draft, well, I can tell you this would be the first time ever. Passers have gone with the first three picks three other times -- 2021, 1999 and 1971 -- but this would be history.

Dalton Kincaid's NFL draft profile

Check out the best highlights that contributed to Utah TE Dalton Kincaid's college career.

5. Seattle Seahawks (via DEN)

Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia

The Seahawks likely would be thrilled with this scenario, as they could get their pick of the defenders in the class. I see Carter, the No. 1 prospect on my Big Board, as the better fit here over Will Anderson Jr., who I have ranked No. 3 overall. Seattle can play Carter next to free agent addition Dre'Mont Jones and create one of the NFL's most talented tackle combinations. (Carter is visiting with the team Tuesday.)

I don't expect Carter, who pleaded no contest to misdemeanor charges of reckless driving and racing last month in connection with a fatal crash in January, to drop out of the top seven picks. In fact, his agent said recently that Carter is declining visits with any teams outside the top 10. Carter did not have a good pro day, but NFL teams believe he's too talented to pass up.

6. Detroit Lions (via LAR)

Will Anderson Jr., OLB, Alabama

I love the potential pairing of Anderson on the other side of Aidan Hutchinson, the No. 2 overall pick a year ago. That's a scary edge rushing duo. In 2021, Anderson's 79 QB pressures ranked first in the country, while Hutchinson was second with 64. Anderson had 17.5 sacks to Hutchinson's 14. These two know how to get after quarterbacks. For a Detroit team without many available starting spots on its roster, this would be a tremendous selection.

Update: The Lions traded cornerback Jeff Okudah to the Falcons on Tuesday, opening a starting spot in their secondary. Corner was a need even before the trade, though. In this scenario, with Anderson on the board, I still think Detroit would go with the elite edge rusher. Remember: It has another first-round pick and two picks in the second round.

7. Las Vegas Raiders

Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

While the Raiders likely would love to get a shot at either Anderson or Carter, they'll have to settle in this scenario for my top-ranked player at another position of need. Witherspoon is a physical defender with shutdown ability. He would be a Day 1 starter in Las Vegas, which ranked last in the league in takeaways last season (13). This is also a spot to watch for the first offensive tackle off the board.

8. Atlanta Falcons

Nolan Smith, OLB, Georgia

It's edge rusher or cornerback here, as the Falcons have clear needs at both positions, even after all their signings in free agency. They had just 21 sacks last season, which ranked second-to-last in the league. While Smith would fit better in a 3-4 defense, I see new coordinator Ryan Nielsen -- who came over from New Orleans -- figuring out ways to get him on the field to rush passers. Nielsen could vary his fronts. Smith is an explosive player with a ton of upside, and people in the league rave about his leadership ability.

9. Chicago Bears (via CAR)

Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee

Chicago dropped eight spots in Round 1 but picked up a massive haul in its trade with Carolina, allowing it to keep premium picks in this draft and add future capital as well. And if it wants to add an instant starter at No. 9, offensive tackle is the position to target. I like Wright's opportunity with the Bears if we're strictly looking at right tackles, since Braxton Jones held his own on the left side last season. Wright started 27 games at right tackle in college; his tape against Will Anderson Jr. and Alabama was phenomenal. He's the best right tackle in this class. My pal Louis Riddick is a huge fan too. This is a selection to keep quarterback Justin Fields clean.

10. Philadelphia Eagles (via NO)

Peter Skoronski, OT/G, Northwestern

This could be a spot for an edge rusher, but Philadelphia can keep a strength a strength by taking Skoronski. With right guard Isaac Seumalo departing in free agency, there's an opening, and many NFL talent evaluators believe Skoronski has All-Pro potential if he moves inside. He started 33 games at left tackle in college, but his arms are slightly shorter than average for a tackle (32¼ inches). The Eagles lost both of their starting safeties this offseason, but they could find at least one replacement on Day 2 of the draft.

11. Arizona Cardinals (via mock trade with TEN)

Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech

Arizona could go in a few different directions with this pick, including cornerback, offensive tackle or wide receiver. But who's rushing the passer for this team? J.J. Watt retired and Zach Allen left in free agency. I like Myjai Sanders, but he's raw. Cameron Thomas and Dennis Gardeck could take steps forward, but D-line is a massive need for the Cardinals. The 6-6 Wilson is a prototypical end who could thrive in new coach Jonathan Gannon's defense.

12. Houston Texans (via CLE)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

This is the Texans' chance to take their pick of the wide receivers in this class, and we know Smith-Njigba can be a star with C.J. Stroud throwing him passes. What's not to like about this combo? Smith-Njigba has No. 1 wideout potential, but he's coming off a lost season because of a hamstring injury -- he caught five passes and ran 42 routes during the entire 2022 campaign. He showed he was healthy at the combine and I feel comfortable putting him in this range in Round 1. Houston has to add more talented pass-catchers. If it decides on another position, keep an eye on defensive line.

13. New York Jets

Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

This is another pick I'm keeping the same from my previous mock draft, and we still don't know what the Jets will have to give up in their eventual trade for quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Surely we'll know before the draft begins, right? Jones could play on the right or left side in the NFL -- he was nearly flawless for the Bulldogs last season. When the Bucs added Tom Brady in March 2020, they picked plug-and-play tackle Tristan Wirfs at No. 13 overall the following month, filling a void. That move helped get them a Super Bowl title in Wirfs' rookie season. That's New York's best-case scenario here -- assuming the Rodgers deal gets done with Green Bay.

14. New England Patriots

Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

If the Patriots don't trade down to acquire more capital, I see corner or wideout as the position to target here. On offense, new coordinator Bill O'Brien has to get quarterback Mac Jones turned around after a disastrous 2022. The additions of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mike Gesicki in free agency will help, but there's room for another really good outside wideout. Cornerback, though, is a position of strength in this class and Gonzalez has a chance to go in the top 10. The 6-1 defender picked off four passes for the Ducks last season.

15. Green Bay Packers

Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah

Take a look at the Green Bay depth chart and tell me this: Who is going to catch passes from quarterback Jordan Love in 2023? OK, outside of second-year wideouts Christian Watson and Romeo Dobbs? There's just not much there, and Josiah Deguara, who had 13 catches last season, is now the team's No. 1 tight end. Kincaid is the best pass-catching tight end in this class. He had 16 touchdown receptions over the past two seasons. He can stretch the seams in the middle of the field, and he can create easy connections for Love. This is the pick to help a young signal-caller.

Trenton Simpson's NFL draft profile

Check out some of the best plays that have made Clemson's Trenton Simpson a top prospect in this year's NFL draft.

16. Washington Commanders

Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State

The Commanders say they're not in the market for Lamar Jackson and I don't see them making a trade up for one of the top quarterbacks in this draft. That means they need to find an instant starter with this selection. While I thought about offensive line -- Washington ranked 28th in yards per carry (4.0) last season -- signing right tackle Andrew Wylie filled the biggest hole. On the other side of the ball, finding a corner should be the priority. At 6-2 with long arms, Porter would make a lot of sense. He has all the tools to be a spectacular cover man.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers

Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College

This is around where we could see a run on receivers. Flowers is actually my top-ranked wideout. I love his explosion and ability after the catch. Pittsburgh's wideouts had just five touchdown receptions last season, which ranked last in the league. The 5-9 Flowers is a dynamo out of the slot, but he had plenty of grabs lined up outside too. He could be a nice fit with Diontae Johnson and George Pickens. Quarterback Kenny Pickett had a special connection with former Pitt teammate Jordan Addison, but I think Flowers would be the better pick for the Steelers.

18. Detroit Lions

Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

People keep telling me Robinson won't last into the 20s. He's that good. It's just really tough to find the perfect landing spot for him because teams finally understand the value of running backs in Round 1. So I'm going to follow Todd McShay's lead and slot in Robinson to Detroit. Why? Because he'd be better in 2023 than D'Andre Swift, who is a free agent next year, and because he'd bring a receiving threat to the offense that free agent signing David Montgomery just doesn't have. Robinson is a luxury pick, but the Lions really don't have that many needs. They can afford a luxury selection here.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State

It really seems as if the Bucs are planning to wait out the tackle class with this pick. It's a big need. Tristan Wirfs has been a star at right tackle, but he could move over to the left side. In this scenario, why not keep Wirfs on the right and let Johnson play left tackle? Johnson had a stellar 2022 season for the Buckeyes and he can dominate in pass protection and move defenders in the run game. As Tampa Bay moves forward with Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask at quarterback, it needs a steady O-line to protect them.

20. Seattle Seahawks

Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson

Seattle's surprising run to the 2022 playoffs masked a defense that didn't look like a typical Pete Carroll unit. The Seahawks surrendered 24.0 points per game, which ranked 25th in the league, and allowed 4.9 yards per carry, which ranked 27th. I gave Carroll help in the middle of his defensive line with Jalen Carter at pick No. 5, so let's move outside and add an end who will help against both the run and pass. Murphy has some upside, though I never saw him dominate on tape. He had 14 sacks and 63 QB pressures over the past two seasons. Carroll likes well-rounded defensive ends, and that's Murphy.

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21. Los Angeles Chargers

Jordan Addison, WR, USC

Addison could be a nice complement to L.A.'s offense. He is a great route runner who knows how to get open, though he's not quite as explosive as Zay Flowers. He had 100 catches for 1,592 yards and 17 touchdowns at Pitt in 2021 before an injury at USC last season forced him to miss time. If he lands with the Chargers, he could be one of the favorites for Offensive Rookie of the Year, because new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will get creative and use him all over the field.

22. Baltimore Ravens

Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland

You could argue whether the Ravens actually filled their need at wide receiver with the signing of Odell Beckham Jr.. Why? Because it was just a one-year deal. They still have issues beyond 2023. Still, I could see them turning to cornerback instead. Banks has excellent physical tools. He ran a 4.35-second 40-yard dash at the combine and showed off a 42-inch vertical jump, which was the best among the cornerbacks in Indianapolis. He excels in man coverage, using his speed to turn and run with receivers. He had only two picks in his career, but he gets his hands on passes. He could start on the other side of Marlon Humphrey in Baltimore.

23. Minnesota Vikings

Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State

Cornerback is a clear need area for Minnesota, which replaced Patrick Peterson with Byron Murphy but has plenty of available corner reps. Forbes needs to grow into his 6-1 frame -- he weighed in at 166 pounds at the combine -- but he is a great cover corner. He had six career pick-sixes in college, and he never missed a game because of injury. He needs to be more consistent, but he has outstanding instincts and his ceiling is high. The Vikings also could target a wideout to complement Justin Jefferson with this pick.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars

Lukas Van Ness, DL, Iowa

This is a pairing I had in my Mock Draft 2.0. Van Ness has positional flexibility; at 6-5, 272 pounds, some teams view him as a pure defensive end, while others want to see him get more reps at tackle. In Jacksonville, he could be a bit of both, penetrating as a pass-rusher on late downs and using his power to hold up in the run game. He had seven sacks last season. For Jacksonville, this is another step toward improving the front seven, which should see more flashes from 2022 No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker.

25. New York Giants

DJ Turner, CB, Michigan

I've slotted in wide receivers to the Giants in my previous mock drafts, so let's switch gears and go with another position they could target. They could use a player to challenge Aaron Robinson and Cor'Dale Flott on the other side of Adoree' Jackson. Turner is a hot name in the league right now, largely because scouts and execs went back to the tape after his 4.26-second 40-yard dash at the combine. That was the fourth-fastest time at the combine since 2003. He's in the first-round discussion now. At 5-11, 178 pounds, Turner isn't very big, but he has some versatility -- he played outside and in the slot for the Wolverines. New York ranked 25th in the NFL with 19 takeaways last season.

26. Dallas Cowboys

Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

Dalton Schultz left in free agency and the Cowboys never replaced him. Let's get Dak Prescott a talented safety valve here. Mayer is the best all-around tight end in this class; he's not afraid to latch on to defenders and block. Don't discount his receiving upside, either. He had 180 catches for 2,099 yards and 18 scores in three college seasons. He can be an outlet on crossers and hooks and he'll pick up first downs after the catch. Dallas also has scouted the class' best wide receivers, so keep an eye out if one of the top guys drops.

27. Buffalo Bills

Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson

I don't love drafting strictly for need, but that's exactly what great teams can do when they don't have many holes. Buffalo let middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds leave in free agency and this could be a selection to fill that void. Simpson is a really good three-down linebacker who has some coverage traits in the pass game and is a strong blitzer. He ran a blazing 4.43-second 40-yard dash at the combine at 235 pounds. Middle linebackers in today's NFL must have smooth hips and range in coverage, and those are Simpson's strengths.

Drew Sanders' NFL draft profile

Check out the highlights that contributed to Drew Sanders' career at Arkansas.

28. Cincinnati Bengals

Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson

We've focused a lot on the Bengals' need at tight end, but what if they think they filled it with often-injured veteran Irv Smith Jr.? This is the direction they could go if that's the case. Cincinnati ranked 29th in sacks last season (30) and it needs to get more of an interior push on late downs. Bresee could provide that. At 6-5, 298 pounds, he tested extremely well at the combine. He's powerful at the point of attack and is instinctual after the snap. This is another team without many holes, so it can afford to select a player who might not start immediately.

29. New Orleans Saints (via DEN/MIA/SF)

Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt

As I mentioned in my previous mock draft, the Saints completely turned over at defensive tackle and added Khalen Saunders and Nathan Shepherd to be their new starters. What if they're not done adding? Kancey is one of my favorite prospects in this class. He's so explosive as a pass-rusher and despite being undersized -- 6-1, 281 pounds -- he's going to rack up sacks at the next level. He had 14.5 over the past two seasons. New Orleans could also look at the pass-catchers here, either a tight end or receiver.

Projected trade: Seahawks move into Round 1

There's a ton of value in trading back into Round 1 to take a player to get his fifth-year option. We've seen it twice with quarterbacks in the past decade, with the Ravens trading up for Lamar Jackson (2018) and the Vikings doing it for Teddy Bridgewater (2014). Teams want to have that controllable fifth season. That's exactly what this deal is for the Seahawks, who might have competition to move up.

To make this deal happen, I'll project Seattle to give up both of its second-round picks -- Nos. 37 and 52. That seems pretty fair. So that means Philly moves down seven picks but adds a prime selection on Day 2 and still owns No. 62. By the way, pick No. 37 is the last of the capital from Denver from the Russell Wilson trade.

30. Seattle Seahawks (via mock trade with PHI)

Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee

There's some buzz about Hooker rising into the first round and this could be the perfect landing spot. I have a second-round grade on him, but I can see why he might be appealing. He led the FBS in Total QBR (89.5) and yards per attempt (9.5) last season, and he threw just five picks over two seasons at Tennessee. His accuracy on deep throws is really good. The downside? He played in a quarterback-friendly offense, didn't have to go through progressions and is coming off a torn left ACL suffered in November. There's going to be a learning curve in the NFL. Plus, he's already 25 years old, so there are questions about his ceiling.

For Seattle, as I mentioned in my previous mock draft, the details of Geno Smith's contract extension show it's only a one-year commitment. The team could easily move on after one year and turn to Hooker.

31. Kansas City Chiefs

Will McDonald IV, DE, Iowa State

The McDonald stat I love most? He had 10 career forced fumbles. He gets to quarterbacks but also understands how to create turnovers. (Will Anderson Jr. had just one forced fumble in his career at Alabama.) McDonald is an explosive player with a high ceiling. The Super Bowl champs could add him to the edge rotation with George Karlaftis and free agent addition Charles Omenihu. As I've mentioned before, keep Kansas City in mind for the wideouts in this class.

ROUND 2

32. Pittsburgh Steelers (from CHI)

Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma

This would be great value for Harrison, a smooth pass protector who started 24 games at left tackle in college. Dan Moore Jr. started there for the Steelers last season and he ranked 34th among all tackles in pass block win rate. Harrison could compete with Moore from Day 1, but he also could beat out Chukwuma Okorafor on the right side.

What to know for the 2023 NFL draft

33. Houston Texans

Felix Anudike-Uzomah, DE, Kansas State

I went all offense with Houston's two picks in Round 1, but it needs help on defense, too. Anudike-Uzomah, who had 19.5 sacks over the past two seasons, has a chance to sneak into the first round. At 6-3, 255 pounds, he still is developing his pass-rush moves. He plays through the whistle and can hold his own in the run game. He has the versatility to play in a 3-4 or 4-3 defense.

34. Arizona Cardinals

Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU

If the Cardinals really do trade away DeAndre Hopkins, here's a tall, outside wideout who could replace him. The 6-3 Johnston averaged 17.8 yards per catch last season. He can make contested catches and break tackles after he pulls down the ball. He wasn't asked to run every route in college so he'll have a learning curve, but he should make an instant impact inside the 20-yard line.

35. Indianapolis Colts

Brian Branch, DB, Alabama

Nick Saban used Branch primarily as a slot corner, but Branch is my top-ranked safety in this class. The versatility to play in the nickel or as a center fielder sets him apart. His 4.58-second 40-yard dash at the combine was below average, but I didn't see him get beat often on tape; I'm not worried about his timed speed. Branch would have the chance to be an instant starter in the Colts' secondary.

36. Los Angeles Rams

Keion White, DE, Georgia Tech

The Rams are trying to rebuild their defense on the fly -- there aren't many starters left from their 2021 Super Bowl-winning season. At 6-5, 285 pounds, White is a nice fit as an end in L.A.'s 3-4 defense. He played both tackle and end in college, putting up 7.5 sacks last season. The Rams need a defender who could contribute immediately.

37. Philadelphia Eagles (via mock trade with SEA through DEN)

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama

Here's the first selection from my projected trade at the end of Round 1, and it just feels right. Gibbs is a dynamic receiver out of the backfield -- he caught 44 passes last season. He could split time with free agent signing Rashad Penny and Kenneth Gainwell and be an easy outlet for quarterback Jalen Hurts. Plus, the Eagles have two more second-round picks to add talent.

38. Las Vegas Raiders

O'Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida

Plug-and-play guards aren't always valued in Round 1, but that's exactly what Torrence is. He's going to plow defenders in the run game and he's going to pancake them in pass sets. He allowed just one sack in 2022, his first season at Florida after transferring from Louisiana, where he started at both left and right guard over three seasons. Torrence would be an easy upgrade for the Raiders' interior O-line.

39. Carolina Panthers

Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas

Sanders is coming off a phenomenal season after transferring from Alabama. He had 111 total tackles, 9.5 sacks, 16 total tackles for loss, two forced fumbles and an interception. At 6-4, he's a tall linebacker who can make an impact as a rookie. He could be play inside or outside for Carolina and he'll create chaos as a blitzer. Just let him chase the ball and he'll make plays.

Josh Downs' NFL draft profile

Check out some of the best plays that have made North Carolina's Josh Downs a top prospect in this year's NFL draft.

40. New Orleans Saints

Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia

I made this match in Round 1 of my Mock Draft 2.0 because the Saints need to get more production out of the tight end position. We know new starting quarterback Derek Carr appreciates the position and targets it often. Washington is a tough evaluation because he just didn't get the ball much. He had 45 catches and three touchdowns in three college seasons. At 6-7, 264 pounds, though, he has all the physical tools to be a complete player.

41. Arizona Cardinals (via mock trade with TEN)

Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan

This pick comes from my trade projecting the Titans to move up to No. 3 for a quarterback. I got Arizona edge rusher Tyree Wilson with its first-round pick and let's stay with the D-line. Smith is the best run-stopping tackle in this class. At 6-3, 323 pounds, he is so strong at the point of attack. He'll never rack up sacks, but he can eat up blockers in the run game.

42. New York Jets (from CLE)

Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State

On paper, the Jets have several potential tight end contributors on their roster, led by Tyler Conklin, C.J. Uzomah and Jeremy Ruckert. I just don't see much upside in the pass game there. Musgrave is a toolsy, 6-6 tight end with great hands. He played just two games last season because of a knee injury, but he was starting to show his potential as a pass-catcher. If Aaron Rodgers finally ends up with the Jets, he'll love throwing passes to Musgrave.

43. New York Jets

Joe Tippmann, C, Wisconsin

Tippman and John Michael Schmitz (Minnesota) are two starting-caliber centers likely to be drafted in Round 2. The Jets can't go wrong with either one here. Tippman, who started 23 games in college, has excellent range as a run blocker and can move his feet well in pass protection. He would have a great chance to start over veteran Wes Schweitzer in New York.

44. Atlanta Falcons

Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia

Ringo looked at times like a potential top-10 pick in 2021, when he was starting as a redshirt freshman for the national champs. He took a step backward last season, however. He was inconsistent in coverage and too often got beat on double moves. He has a great frame (6-2) and is incredibly fast (4.36 40-yard dash at the combine), but he can't rely on his physical tools to get him by. He needs to clean up his technique. In Atlanta, he could stay local -- this means I'm projecting the Falcons to get two Georgia guys in this mock -- and compete for the No. 2 job opposite A.J. Terrell.

Update: The Falcons made a trade with Detroit for corner Jeff Okudah, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2020 draft. I still think Atlanta needs to look at the secondary on Day 2, though. Okudah has not proven that he can be a reliable starter.

45. Green Bay Packers

Byron Young, OLB, Tennessee

This defense really struggled after Rashan Gary went down last season and the Packers need to rebuild their edge-rushing depth. Young is an ideal fit for a team that runs a 3-4. He can explode at the snap and bend around offensive tackles to get to quarterbacks. He tested extremely well at the combine. One thing to keep in mind: At 25, he's one of the oldest prospects in this class. That could push him down the boards of some teams.

46. New England Patriots

Matthew Bergeron, OT, Syracuse

There will be good value for offensive tackles in Round 2; it's a strong class at the top. Bergeron is a riser after the combine and I've heard his name as a wild-card first-round pick. He started 39 games in college, playing both left and right tackle. He could play either spot in New England, which brought in Riley Reiff in free agency and has Trent Brown, who's a free agent in 2024, on the left side.

47. Washington Commanders

Blake Freeland, OT, BYU

I mentioned earlier Washington's need along the offensive line and this could be a selection to find a starter for 2024 and beyond. The 6-8 Freeland could be the swing tackle as a rookie. He started 40 games for the Cougars, playing left tackle, right tackle and right guard. His height gets him into trouble at times -- he can struggle with speedy rushers -- but he has quick feet.

48. Detroit Lions

Jack Campbell, ILB, Iowa

Campbell opened some eyes at the combine, where he tested really well in everything ... but the 40-yard dash (he ran a 4.65). That's OK. If you watch his tape, you can see his limitations. He's not going to be able to run stride for stride with tight ends. Still, at 6-5, 249 pounds, he can be an asset on early downs as a run-stopper. He's a great tackler. In Detroit, he could compete with Alex Anzalone in the middle of the defense.

2023 NFL draft rankings

• Draftcast: Best prospects remaining »
• Consensus rankings, position top fives »
• Kiper Big Board » | McShay's top 350 »
• Reid's top 379 » | Miller's top 368 »
• Leggy 100 » | HBCU rankings »

49. Pittsburgh Steelers

Julius Brents, CB, Kansas State

I filled Pittsburgh's hole at wideout in Round 1, which means it should focus on the secondary here. The 6-3 Brents could learn the ropes from veteran Patrick Peterson in Pittsburgh. Brents has stellar length and will wrap up in the run game. He tested extremely well at the combine.

50. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Adetomiwa Adebawore, DL, Northwestern

I had Adebawore in Round 1 of my previous mock draft and I've heard varying opinions on where he could end up and which teams like him. There's a chance he goes much higher than this, even as high as the top 15. But if we're trying to find a spot for him with a 3-4 team -- I think his best position is as an end in a 3-4 -- this is the team. Adebawore put on a show at the combine, but he didn't have great numbers in college (9.5 sacks over the past two seasons) and might never be a great pass-rusher. He could be a physical run-stopper for the Bucs, though.

51. Miami Dolphins

Steve Avila, G/C, TCU

The Dolphins have just four picks in this draft, two on Day 2 and two on Day 3. I could see them trading down to try to add more. I also see Avila being a good fit because of his versatility. He played every O-line position except for left tackle in college, seeing most of his time at center and left guard. Guard is likely where he would play for Miami. He's a strong run blocker but he had some inconsistent reps in pass protection.

52. Philadelphia Eagles (via mock trade with SEA)

Derick Hall, OLB, Auburn

I focused on offense with the first two Philadelphia picks, but I'm going to switch to defense for these next two. We know general manager Howie Roseman loves to replenish his defensive line through the draft, and the Eagles love their D-line rotation. Hall could be a situational pass-rusher as a rookie -- he had 16 sacks over the past two seasons -- who develops into a starting edge defender. Veterans Brandon Graham and Derek Barnett won't be around forever.

53. Chicago Bears (from BAL)

BJ Ojulari, DE, LSU

When you watch Ojulari's tape from 2021 and 2022, he often looks like a top-20 pick. Then there are some plays in which he gets blown off the ball and looks like a Day 3 selection. Can he put all of his talent together? He had 80 QB pressures over the past two seasons. The Bears badly need help getting after quarterbacks. If they don't take an edge rusher at No. 9 overall, they have to add one here.

54. Los Angeles Chargers

Brenton Strange, TE, Penn State

I gave the Chargers wideout Jordan Addison in Round 1, but they shouldn't stop acquiring playmakers around quarterback Justin Herbert. Strange could help the entire offense because he took a step forward as a blocker in 2022. As a pass-catcher, he wasn't used as a seam-stretcher in college, but he has some upside. L.A. also could look to the defensive tackles in Round 2.

55. Detroit Lions (from MIN)

Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee

Let's recap the Lions' haul in this two-round mock. Here are my picks for them:

That's an A draft grade, right? All four of these prospects would play early and often.

56. Jacksonville Jaguars

Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina

The Jags parted ways with Shaquill Griffin in March and they already have three solid corners in Tyson Campbell, Darious Williams and Tre Herndon. Teams can never have too many cover corners, though. Smith played everywhere for the Gamecocks, excelling in zone coverage. At 6-1, he has the instincts to get his hands on the ball and he's a willing tackler in run support.

57. New York Giants

John Michael Schmitz, C, Minnesota

The Giants could be in need of an immediate starter at center, with Nick Gates and Jon Feliciano departing in free agency. Schmitz started 31 games there in college. He is physical in the run game and has good balance in pass protection. He allowed just one sack over the past three seasons.

58. Dallas Cowboys

Jonathan Mingo, WR, Ole Miss

I thought about a replacement for Ezekiel Elliott here, but Mingo would make an impact on the Dallas depth chart. The 6-2, 220-pound receiver has a great mix of size and speed. He averaged 16.9 yards per reception last season and he was mostly running short routes. He can break tackles once he gets the ball. He has experience playing both outside and in the slot. This makes two pass-catchers for the Cowboys, and you know Dak Prescott would be thrilled.

59. Buffalo Bills

Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina

Downs caught 170 passes when lined up in the slot over the past two seasons. He knows how to get open. He's a sudden receiver with precision in his routes. Gabe Davis never really put it all together to be the Bills' No. 2 receiver last season, and time might be running out for him to do so. Downs could be an instant contributor for Buffalo.

60. Cincinnati Bengals

Zach Charbonnet, RB, UCLA

Joe Mixon had a disappointing 2022 season and the Bengals struggled to run the ball. They averaged just 3.8 yards per carry, which ranked 29th in the league. At 6 feet, 214 pounds, Charbonnet is tough and patient between the tackles. He doesn't have breakaway speed, so he likely won't ever be a big-play threat. He could be a stellar goal-line back, though. He also caught 37 passes last season, showing soft hands.

61. Chicago Bears (from SF/CAR)

Jaquelin Roy, DT, LSU

Roy is a 305-pound nose tackle prospect who is powerful against the run. He's hard to block. In this scenario, he could battle to start with Andrew Billings, who was signed this offseason. Chicago has to keep building up the trenches; I've gone O-line or D-line with each of their top three picks.

62. Philadelphia Eagles

Jartavius Martin, DB, Illinois

Here's another spot to recap a team's picks, as I projected the Eagles to add two more selections via a mock trade. Here are my picks for them:

Again, this is a great draft, right? All four fill need areas for the Eagles.

63. Kansas City Chiefs

Marvin Mims, Jr., WR, Oklahoma

Let's finish up with a playmaker for the the Chiefs. Mims averaged more than 20 yards per reception in each of the past two seasons. He has a flair for the spectacular, though he had some concentration drops. He ran a 4.38-second 40-yard dash at the combine, so he can blow by almost any cornerback. He wouldn't have to carry a huge load as a rookie for Kansas City, but there are plenty of open snaps for receivers who can get open.

2023 nfl mock draft mel kiper first second round predictions 63 picks fourth version

2023-04-28 08:31:42