Apr 18, 2023

ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder is grading every big 2023 NFL signing and trade of the offseason. So far, we have broken down more than 60 deals.

To determine each grade, Walder is evaluating moves based on multiple factors, including on-field impact, salary-cap implications, draft compensation, player value/age and the context of a team's short-term and long-term outlook. How large is the effect of this decision, and how sure are we it's a good or bad choice? How does this affect a team's chance to win the Super Bowl, either this season or in the future? General managers making transactions don't have the luxury of seeing how it all plays out, so neither should we.

We also will have NFL draft analysts Matt Miller and Jordan Reid approach the biggest moves from a draft perspective. What do the top deals mean for that team's first-round outlook come April, and how do they impact where the top prospects might be selected? Taking into account team needs, positional value on draft boards and what they're hearing from around the NFL, they break down what it all means.

Follow along as our experts evaluate and grade each move, with the most recent grades at the top.

Steelers trade for WR Allen Robinson

Pittsburgh Steelers get: WR Allen Robinson II, 2023 seventh-round pick (No. 251)
Los Angeles Rams get: 2023 seventh-round pick (No. 234)

Steelers' grade: B-
Rams' grade: B

Robinson will make $15 million this season, but this trade essentially tells us the open market valued him at just $5 million. The draft pick compensation is basically nothing, and the Rams have effectively decided they would rather pay $10 million for Robinson to not play for them than $15 million for him to play for them (which is fine on its own, treating sunk costs as sunk costs is rational).

We can see why by looking at his production numbers. Robinson averaged a mere 0.95 yards per route run last season -- which ranked 91st out of 98 qualifying wide receivers and was worse than Shi Smith, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Parris Campbell. Robinson wasn't great in 2021 with the Bears, either, at 1.3 yards per route run, meaning the soon-to-be 30-year-old is coming off back-to-back poor seasons.

I don't totally mind this for the Steelers because it's so low risk, Robinson's Receiver Tracking Metrics weren't as dour on his 2022 performance (he ranked 47th out of 82 WRs in Overall Score) and having more receivers is a good thing, even with a nice combination of Diontae Johnson and George Pickens in front of him. But if I was going to spend $5ish million on a receiver this offseason I'd have preferred someone like Darius Slayton or Deonte Harty -- younger players who have shown potential that could turn into assets.

For the Rams, shedding veteran salary makes sense in a year when they seem unlikely to contend, particularly in the case of Robinson, who proved ineffective in Sean McVay's offense. But it is another reminder -- as was the Jalen Ramsey trade -- that this is a team that could (or should, in my opinion) also trade away Aaron Donald and Cooper Kupp (as I wrote in the Ramsey trade section), either this offseason or during the season. -- Walder

Falcons trading for CB Jeff Okudah

Atlanta Falcons get: CB Jeff Okudah
Detroit Lions get: 2023 fifth-round pick

Falcons' grade: B
Lions' grade: C

The Falcons cross a huge need off the checklist with the acquisition of Okudah, the 2020 No. 3 overall pick. Atlanta sends a 2023 fifth-round pick to Detroit for the 24-year-old cornerback, who is entering his fourth NFL season. This is a contract year for Okudah, and the Falcons will have the option to exercise his fifth-year option. But given his limited stat sheet over the first three seasons of his career, that seems unlikely.

Okudah played just 10 games in his first two seasons because of injuries but started 15 games in 2022 and had his best season yet. He had 73 tackles, broke up seven passes and recorded one interception. Lining up opposite the stellar A.J. Terrell in Atlanta, Okudah will be free from the pressure of covering a WR1 every week and could thrive in the Falcons' defensive scheme led by Ryan Nielsen. This is a very low risk move for Atlanta, but it has a high ceiling considering Okudah had first-round grades just three years ago. He has to prove he can stay healthy, but finding a proven starter at the cost of a fifth-round selection is a boom for Atlanta in a draft year that is thin on starter-level talent at cornerback.

As for the Lions, the only real value in the move is some freed-up cap space. Okudah will be $10.7 million against the cap and is still due $5.2 million in guaranteed money. And Detroit gets back a pick for a player it was going to let walk in a year anyway. This opens the door to drafting a cornerback at No. 6 overall, especially if Illinois' Devon Witherspoon is available. Even after adding Cameron Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley in free agency, corner is a need. Sutton is most comfortable in the slot, and it shouldn't be a surprise if the Lions go "best player available at a position of need" with Witherspoon. -- Miller

Ravens agree to deal with WR Odell Beckham Jr.

The deal: One year, $15 million guaranteed

Grade: B

With Lamar Jackson or without Lamar Jackson, the Ravens needed a wide receiver this offseason. Prior to signing Beckham, the group was led by Nelson Agholor and the promising but entirely unproven Rashod Bateman, a first-round pick in 2021. Even if Jackson comes back and plays on the franchise tag in 2023, Baltimore has to improve its passing efficiency and can't rely on only Mark Andrews as a receiving threat.

Enter Beckham, a 30-year-old former superstar coming off an ACL tear in Super Bowl LVI with the Rams that cost him the entirety of 2022. From 2018 through 2021, Beckham's yards per route run dropped from 2.3 to 1.9 to 1.9 to 1.6, including the playoffs. Even in 2021, he was clearly not the player he was with the Giants, though there was one positive sign: an 86 open score in his receiver tracking metrics. Again, that was before his latest injury.

I'm somewhat torn on the grade here. This is more money than I thought Beckham would get once it became clear the receiver market was cheap. Paying $15 million guaranteed seems questionable when Jakobi Meyers was available for comparable guarantees and more years. On the other hand, the Ravens are, at least with Jackson, perennial Super Bowl hopefuls. It's hard to be that without better wide receivers -- and there weren't many options out there. Plus, could this help persuade Jackson to remain with the Ravens long term? I sort of doubted it, but then Jackson's Instagram reaction made me think ... it can't hurt?

Ultimately, I try to grade these moves through this lens: How did this decision compare to those available, and if in the team's shoes, would I make the same decision? Signing Beckham to this deal is worse than signing Meyers to his contract but better than signing Allen Lazard to his or Robert Woods to his. It's expensive, but sometimes a team has to pay up when there are no other options left. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: The Ravens filled their biggest need, but it's important to note that it is only a one-year deal. There's still a hole at wide receiver for this team in the long-term projection of roster building. OBJ is a great addition if healthy, but the Ravens can and should still consider receivers like Jalin Hyatt (Tennessee), Quentin Johnston (TCU) and Zay Flowers (Boston College) at No. 22 overall.

With Rashod Bateman coming off an injury-plagued 15-catch season, throwing free agency and draft resources at receiver is a smart play for general manager Eric DeCosta, especially if he wants to make Jackson happy. -- Miller

Seahawks bring back LB Bobby Wagner

The deal: One year, max value of $7 million

Grade: B

The Seahawks are bringing back their longtime star linebacker in the hopes he has one more season like he had in 2022, when he was one of the few bright spots for the Rams. Wagner ranked seventh among linebackers in run stop win rate, was slightly better than average in yards per coverage snap allowed (0.8), recorded six sacks and had the highest pass rush win rate among all linebackers with at least 50 plays with a win or loss. That's a very strong linebacker season!

Now, can Wagner do it again in his age-33 season? It's no guarantee, but Seattle is making a $7 million bet that he can. It's not a bargain; there have been so many good free agent linebackers that signed in this (fairly cheap) price range this offseason. But it's fine a fine deal -- if I were the Seahawks, I'd pay this price for a reunion with Wagner, too. -- Walder

Browns trading for WR Elijah Moore

Cleveland Browns get: WR Elijah Moore, 2023 third-round pick (No. 74)
New York Jets get: 2023 second-round pick (No. 42)

Browns' grade: A-
Jets' grade: C-

The Jets had a crowded wide receiver room, but in the process of thinning it, they've traded away a young receiver with upside who could have contributed to their title hopes (with Aaron Rodgers?) -- for a tiny return.

Let's talk about the price here: The difference between the two picks exchanged is equivalent to a mid-fifth-round selection, according to our approximate value-based draft chart. The outdated Jimmy Johnson chart makes the difference an early third-round selection, but the Jets are fooling themselves if they believe that's what they got here.

Moore has not been particularly productive, with under 1,000 receiving yards combined over his two NFL seasons and just 1.3 yards per route run in that span. He was targeted on 25% of his routes as a rookie in 2021 (good!), but then that number dropped to 13% last season.

In a Zach Wilson/Joe Flacco/Mike White offense, we have to take those production numbers with a grain of salt, and that's why it's particularly important to rely on our receiver tracking metrics to judge him. He has been consistent with a 56 and 55 overall score in 2021 and 2022, respectively. The first year was driven by a high open score (70), and last season was more even across the board (a 56/56/45 open/catch/YAC triple-slash). His 2021 56 overall score tied him for 40th among 82 qualifying wide receivers.

Given the age (Moore turns 23 next week) and the draft history (second round, No. 34), there clearly is still some upside here. And the Browns get to find out for so, so little. In addition to the light trade compensation, they'll pay him under $2 million in each of the next two seasons in salary. He can slide in as a third wideout, playing in the slot alongside Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones -- a position of need for the Browns in the modern NFL, where passing is the key to winning.

For the Jets, they are giving up both upside and production for a small amount of draft capital. They had several wide receivers, but only one great one -- Garrett Wilson. The case can be made that Moore might be the second-best among them for the future; in the past two seasons, none of Allen Lazard, Corey Davis or Mecole Hardman has posted a qualifying overall score in the RTMs as strong as Moore's. This price just isn't worth it to move on from Moore. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: From the Jets' perspective, they now have three picks inside the top 45 -- Nos. 13, 42 and 43. Quarterback, offensive tackle and center are their biggest needs, although a Rodgers deal could solve the first one. At No. 13, New York is in the range to add one of the top tackles. Paris Johnson Jr. (Ohio State), Peter Skoronski (Northwestern) and Broderick Jones (Georgia) are possible targets. Center could be a prime Day 2 target, as John Michael Schmitz (Minnesota), Luke Wypler (Ohio State) and Joe Tippmann (Wisconsin) could help the team.

For the Browns, the No. 74 pick is their first selection in April's draft. Adding an edge rusher should be the top priority. Derick Hall (Auburn), Tuli Tuipulotu (USC) and Zach Harrison (Ohio State) are three prospects to monitor. -- Reid

Panthers agree to sign WR Adam Thielen

The deal: Three years, $25 million ($14 million guaranteed)

Grade: C

At first look, $14 million guaranteed for a 32-year-old Thielen sounded like a lot of money. Then I remembered I've been living in a cheap free agency fever dream, and paying that kind of money for Thielen is not that unusual in the grand scheme of wide receiver contracts. Consider that a year ago, the Jaguars signed Zay Jones to a deal that guaranteed him $14 million, and the Bucs inked Russell Gage to one that guaranteed $15 million, per OverTheCap. And since then, the salary cap has gone up. And while both of those players were much younger than Thielen is now, neither is nearly as accomplished.

Thielen does look like a player in decline, though. Over the past three years, his yards per route run have been 1.9, 1.7 and then 1.1 in 2022. His receiver tracking metrics overall score followed a similar pattern: 69, 71 and then 52 last season.

All of that would have me quite concerned, but then I also think about Carolina's alternatives -- or lack thereof. The Panthers are about to draft a quarterback with the No. 1 overall pick and have a wide receiver room that is led by Terrace Marshall Jr., Laviska Shenault Jr. and Shi Smith. I do buy the argument that having decent wideouts probably helps a QB's development (and the team's evaluation of that quarterback). As of this moment in free agency, there's not much else left, and that's why I understand this move.

But in order to get here, Carolina let better contracts pass them by. Jakobi Meyers, JuJu Smith-Schuster and even Darius Slayton or Deonte Harty would all have been better additions at slightly more than they actually went for, in my opinion, than Thielen at this price. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: The Panthers still have to add offensive skill players -- and that should be a priority with the No. 39 overall pick. Wide receivers Josh Downs (North Carolina), Jalin Hyatt (Tennessee) and Zay Flowers (Boston College) are all potential targets. With six total draft picks, I wouldn't rule out the franchise double-dipping at wideout because of its lack of playmakers. -- Reid

Lions sign DB C.J. Gardner-Johnson

The deal: One year, max value of $8 million

Grade: A

Just a one-year, $8 million deal for the six-interception safety who my colleague Matt Bowen ranked as NFL's eighth-best free agent available? The one who was part of an elite Eagles secondary that helped bring them to the Super Bowl? Consider me surprised.

It's a heck of a move by the Lions to continue to invest in their secondary, their biggest weakness last season. They had the league's fourth-most-efficient offense ... and the 31st-most-efficient defense. They've now added Cam Sutton, Emmanuel Moseley and Gardner-Johnson in free agency.

Gardner-Johnson is a ballhawk, with nine interceptions in the past two seasons, and he can play as a safety or slot corner.

His nearest-defender numbers are hard to interpret because of his versatile nature, but he allowed 1.0 yards per coverage snap last season, which would be better than average for a slot defender, where he aligned most of the time with the Eagles. His target EPA was only slightly negative (with negative numbers being good), a surprise for someone with six interceptions last season; but again, nearest-defender numbers are dicey at best for safeties.

He has now changed teams in consecutive offseasons; the Saints dealt him and a seventh-round pick for a fifth- and sixth-rounder in 2022, in a trade that from the get-go seemed like an easy win from Philadelphia's perspective. Now he only gets $8 million in free agency, though the safety market has been fairly down outside of Jessie Bates' contract. Still, I'm shocked at how low this contract is; I did not see Donovan Wilson signing a larger total contract than Gardner-Johnson. If his market was this poor, it makes sense Gardner-Johnson took a prove-it deal -- especially being just 25 years old.

For the Lions, this is a no-risk move to add a defensive playmaker for a low cost. It's a no-brainer. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: The Eagles lose one of the top free agent safeties in this class, and the Lions check off a huge need ahead of a draft class that lacks safety talent in the early rounds. The Eagles will now shift their focus to drafting a safety, but there isn't a true safety with a Round 1 grade in April's draft to target at either No. 10 or No. 30 overall. Instead, we could see Philly aim for Alabama's Jordan Battle or Texas A&M's Antonio Johnson in Round 2.

For the Lions, this certainly seems to check off the needs in the secondary and allows for their two first-round picks -- Nos. 6 and 18 -- to be used on pass-rushers. -- Miller

Cowboys trading for WR Brandin Cooks

Dallas Cowboys get: WR Brandin Cooks
Houston Texans get: 2023 fifth-round pick, 2024 sixth-round pick

Cowboys' grade: A-
Texans' grade: C+

A year ago, the Cowboys made a mistake by trading Amari Cooper to the Browns for cheap. Making this deal for Cooks doesn't rectify that error, but it fills the need the Cooper trade created -- and the Cowboys had to fill it.

Cooks was one of the most reliably productive wide receivers in the league until last year. In 2020 and 2021, he averaged 2.3 and 2.1 yards per route run, respectively. But that number dropped to 1.7 in 2022, albeit it in a poor Houston offense with Davis Mills at QB. His receiver tracking metrics overall score also dropped, from 67 to 60 to 42 over those three seasons. But Cooks -- who is only 29 years old -- was also unhappy in Houston and was frustrated when he wasn't dealt at last year's trade deadline, so that could have affected his play. I like his chances to return to form with the Cowboys.

Crucially, the Texans are taking on $6 million of Cooks' 2023 salary. That means he'll cost $12.5 million in cash this year for the Cowboys and can make $16.5 million in 2024, though that money is not guaranteed. One of the reasons I like this trade for Dallas is that they had to make a move for a wide receiver, and there weren't a ton of great options out there. For instance, I would much rather pay Cooks $12.5 million than Allen Lazard $11 million. And someone like Jakobi Meyers probably made less sense for Dallas since he plays so frequently in the slot, as does CeeDee Lamb.

The other main reason this trade is so important is because in the weak NFC, the Cowboys are a top Super Bowl contender. They need to be ready to maximize on the possibility of a break or two going their way, and that means having more than just Lamb and Michael Gallup at receiver -- especially with Dalton Schultz a free agent.

From Houston's perspective, I would trade Cooks for the best price I could get right now -- and presumably this is that. I'm a little surprised the Texans had to eat the $6 million, but less so considering the receiver market this offseason. But they get a deduction in the grade for not trading Cooks at the deadline last season. I don't know what the Texans were offered at the time, but I have to think it was better than two late-round picks. Chase Claypool was dealt for an early second-round pick to a non-contender at that point. By holding onto him for the second half of the year, the Texans failed to take advantage of the value of Cooks' low 2022 salary in terms of trade return and let him get older for nothing, since they weren't in contention for anything last season. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: This now opens the Cowboys' options at No. 26 overall, and they could just take the best player available. With holes remaining at defensive tackle and guard, I think the Cowboys could fortify the trenches. Florida guard O'Cyrus Torrence could be a first-round option, while TCU's Steve Avila makes a lot of sense on Day 2. Addressing interior defensive line could also be an option, and Baylor's Siaki Ika is a Day 2 prospect who could help. -- Reid

Bills agree to re-sign S Jordan Poyer

The deal: Two years, $12.5 million ($14.5 million max value)

Grade: A-

In each of the past two seasons, no defensive back has cost opposing offenses more EPA when targeted than Poyer, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. It's hard to quantify safeties, but there's no denying Poyer's ball skills. He has been incredibly effective for Buffalo.

And I often think about the 2021 Bills defense as an example of the hidden value of safeties. That was an elite defense despite the fact it lacked a good pass rush and was only decent against the run. Buffalo had a good corner in Tre'Davious White but was anchored by Poyer and Micah Hyde on the back end -- and I believe that was a major factor in its success. Hyde's injury meant we didn't get to see the pair really play together in 2022, but now we'll get another chance. They're both getting up there in age; Hyde is 32, and Poyer will be 32 as well in April. But the Bills are a top Super Bowl contender and it's probably worth it to keep the duo together, especially at this cheap price.

This is basically just a one-year $7 million commitment and if Poyer maintains his level of play for another season, he'll easily be worth the money. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: The Bills bring back one of the best safeties in football while also delaying the need for at least two more years. GM Brandon Beane drafts ahead for future need, so safety could still be a midround target, but this keeps the team's first-round pick free for a "best player available" addition. Keep an eye on wide receivers, should one fall. -- Miller

Patriots sign TE Mike Gesicki

The deal: One year, max value of $9 million

Grade: B

Signing JuJu Smith-Schuster was never going to be enough for the Patriots, who had to add more receiving help. In Gesicki, they just added a tight end who mostly plays receiver from the slot. He'll be another playmaker for quarterback Mac Jones.

Gesicki wasn't a fit in the Mike McDaniel Miami offense, and his production declined last season. After recording more than 700 receiving yards in each of the previous two seasons and 1.8 and 1.6 yards per route run in those years, respectively, Gesicki managed just 362 yards and 1.1 yards per route run in 2022.

The more concerning numbers are in his advanced stats: His 28 Overall Score in the receiver tracking metrics last season ranked second worst among tight ends, and that wasn't just a scheme thing. He ranked in the bottom 10 the previous two seasons, too. His Open Score has never topped 40; if he's catching passes and scoring touchdowns, it's because of his contested-catch ability.

Still, the production the prior two years is at least intriguing, and I do still think having a receiving tight end is a good way to get around the fact that wide receivers are hard to come by -- and the Patriots need them. I'm a fan of a one-year swing on players like Gesicki off a down year, a low-risk move that could pay off.

I'm giving this move a B, but hesitantly; if Dalton Schultz ends up in the same price range, this will look worse -- because I'd rather have Schultz. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: The Patriots still have major holes at offensive tackle, cornerback and wide receiver. With 11 total draft picks -- including No. 14 overall -- there are a few different ways they could go. They signed offensive tackle Riley Reiff, but that shouldn't keep them from targeting the position in Rounds 1 or 2.

Broderick Jones (Georgia), Paris Johnson Jr. (Ohio State) and Peter Skoronski (Northwestern) are the top options on the board, but don't rule out New England being intrigued by Darnell Wright (Tennessee) in the first round. It also could wait until Day 2 to draft a tackle. Matthew Bergeron (Syracuse), Jaelyn Duncan (Maryland), and Blake Freeland (BYU) are three options to keep an eye on. -- Reid

Giants agree to sign WR Darius Slayton

The deal: Two years, $12 million ($16.5 million max value)

Grade: B+

Slayton broke out in 2022 with one of the bigger one-year improvements in our receiver tracking metrics' open score I've seen. In 2021, Slayton's open score was just 29, second-lowest among all qualifying WRs. But in 2022, that number jumped to 67.

Slayton's role changed in Brian Daboll's offense, as he ran fewer comebacks, short fades and deep outs, and more drags, digs and deep crossers. And Slayton recorded 2.0 yards per route run in 2022, a career-high by a significant margin.

For the Giants, it made sense to want Slayton back. Isaiah Hodgins showed real potential, and the Giants have added Darren Waller and Parris Campbell and re-signed Sterling Shepard, but they still needed all the receiving help they could get for quarterback Daniel Jones. Signing Slayton is win on a relatively cheap two-year deal. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: Improving their pass-catchers has been a major point of emphasis this offseason for the Giants -- but that shouldn't keep them from drafting another perimeter target. With the No. 25 selection, they could still entertain Jordan Addison (USC), Jalin Hyatt (Tennessee) or Zay Flowers (Boston College). -- Reid

Bengals sign OT Orlando Brown Jr.

The deal: Four years, $64 million ($43.5 million guaranteed)

Grade: A

When you look at the contract numbers, keep in mind that this same offseason Jawaan Taylor received $80 million over four years and Mike McGlinchey received $87.5 million over five years. Brown is the best tackle of the three and the only one who has played left tackle in the NFL. And on a per-year basis, he is being paid the least. An average of $16 million per year for a good 26-year-old left tackle is plenty palatable.

Brown's 92% pass block win rate at tackle ranked 18th out of 64 tackles -- McGlinchey was 32nd and Taylor was 37th -- but he also did it with double-team help just 27% of the time, the fourth-lowest rate. His run block win rate was average (significantly worse than McGlinchey, but significantly better than Taylor).

Crucially, the Bengals' need here was massive. The idea that their offensive line cost them at the end of last season because of injuries isn't quite right; the line wasn't all that good to begin with, particularly at tackle. Jonah Williams and La'el Collins had pass block win rates of 84% (55th) and 81% (57th) last season, respectively. Bringing in Brown is a huge step forward in fixing the biggest problem for a Super Bowl contender. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: With offensive tackle checked off the needs list, the Bengals could now pivot toward tight end, safety and cornerback at the draft. They have seven selections in 2023 --including No. 28 overall -- and the franchise could go in multiple directions. In a strong tight end class, Dalton Kincaid (Utah) and Michael Mayer (Notre Dame) stand out in the first round, while Luke Musgrave (Oregon State), Tucker Kraft (South Dakota State) and Sam LaPorta (Iowa) are considered to be solid Day 2 options. -- Reid

Panthers sign RB Miles Sanders

The deal: Four years, $25 million

Grade: C-

On the surface, Sanders looks like an efficient running back, averaging 5.0 yards per carry over his four-year career. But playing on the Eagles -- who ranked second in run block win rate last season and have a rushing QB in Jalen Hurts -- helps boost those numbers.

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Using NFL Next Gen Stats' expected rush yards, a model based on the positioning and movement of every player at the time of handoff, we can see he's just OK and not exceptional. Sanders has averaged 0.4 yards over expectation per carry in each of the past three seasons. That's not terrible, but it's half of what D'Onta Foreman (0.8) achieved with the Panthers last season. Foreman will almost surely get paid less than this.

Paying $6.25 million per year on a four-year deal is not a huge amount of money in general, but it's all relative. Sanders just doesn't add a ton of value over players who can be had for cheaper. If Carolina is paying for last year's touchdown total (11), that is a mistake. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: The Panthers need offensive help, and Sanders helps, but continuing to add playmakers is a high priority. After trading up for the No. 1 overall pick, the Panthers still own six selections and have holes at quarterback, receiver and tight end. Carolina will take a signal-caller at the top of the draft and then could look to address its gaping hole at wideout down the board. Josh Downs (North Carolina), Rashee Rice (SMU) and Cedric Tillman (Tennessee) could be possibilities. -- Reid

Saints sign RB Jamaal Williams

The deal: Three years, $12 million ($8 million guaranteed)

Grade: C

Williams ran for 1,000 yards and scored 17 touchdowns for the Lions last season. And yet, he's the perfect indication of why running back volume statistics are not a good judge of the player's skill or value.

Williams has averaged 4.0 yards per carry over his career -- and 4.1 last year -- when the average for running backs with at least 100 carries was 4.4 in 2022. His rush yards over expectation per carry has hovered between minus-0.3 and 0.2 in every season of his career, per NFL Next Gen Stats. And rushers who merely meet expectation are easy to find. It's not a skill that teams need to pay for, even considering how cheap this deal comes in.

The biggest thing that changed for Williams last season is that he got more volume. He does offer some value as a receiver, though he was ironically used less in the passing game in Detroit during his huge year and is going to a team that is already paying Alvin Kamara, who specializes in passing game work. (Kamara could face possible discipline over charges he faces, including felony battery.) -- Walder

Eagles re-sign DT Fletcher Cox

The deal: One year, $10 million

Grade: C

There's no question Cox is a longtime great for the Eagles, but I think this contract is paying him for what he has done in the past as opposed to what we can expect in 2023. Cox, 32, is in decline, and you can see it in his numbers.

In 2017 -- the first season we had win rates available and when Cox was a second-team All-Pro -- he recorded a pass rush win rate of 17%. That's essentially what his recent teammate Javon Hargrave produced this season for the Eagles. But since then, Cox's pass-rushing ability on a play-to-play basis has slid, and his PRWR was down to just 7% in 2022. That ranked 36th out of 54 defensive tackles. Cox did record seven sacks last season, but if I'm trying to forecast a player's impact, that win rate decline is awfully important.

The Eagles lost Hargrave already, so losing Cox would have been a big shakeup at defensive tackle. But at this contract, I think Philadelphia would have been better off letting him walk. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: Considering his age, Cox shouldn't keep the franchise from adding young players along the interior defensive line. The Eagles have the Nos. 10 and 30 selections, and Calijah Kancey (Pittsburgh) and Bryan Bresee (Clemson) match their scheme. And Keeanu Benton (Wisconsin) and Zacch Pickens (South Carolina) are Day 2 names to keep an eye on as the Eagles continue to replenish the interior's depth. -- Reid

Commanders agree to sign QB Jacoby Brissett

The deal: One year, $10 million ($8 million guaranteed)

Grade: A-

Like the Commanders, I am somewhat intrigued by Sam Howell. But I'm also a realist -- he's a 2022 fifth-round pick who played one game last season. The best thing the Commanders could do short of landing Lamar Jackson is get a veteran QB with upside. Brissett completely fits the bill.

Brissett played very well in Cleveland last season, with a 60 QBR that ranked eighth among all quarterbacks. With the same team, Deshaun Watson's QBR was 38.3 (which would have ranked 27th had he qualified). At worst, Brissett is a bridge quarterback to Howell or someone else, a role he filled admirably in Cleveland. At best, perhaps his play with the Browns is a sign of more to come and Washington will be the beneficiary.

Either way, he's a great fit on a one-year commitment for Washington. It also makes sense for Brissett. He's in a spot where he should be the Week 1 starter, and the Commanders have a good receiver in Terry McLaurin, a good defense and a new offensive coordinator in Eric Bieniemy. The only question I have is whether Washington should have instead gone for Jackson. I suppose it still could, as a one-year deal for Brissett is a pittance compared with what Jackson will cost. The Commanders wouldn't be surrendering an early first-rounder if they sign Jackson to an unmatched offer sheet -- they pick in the middle of Round 1 -- and would be an instant contender in the shallow NFC. It would be costly, but the Commanders have to at least consider it.

Jackson aside, Brissett is a pretty ideal short-term move. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: With the draft's top four QB prospects looking like top-10 selections, the Commanders had to address the quarterback position outside of the first round. They are seemingly set at quarterback with a veteran and a young player in place, and they can now look toward addressing the secondary in Round 1. Cornerback and safety are primary needs, and Alabama's Brian Branch would be a fantastic fit and value. -- Miller

Patriots agree to sign WR JuJu Smith-Schuster

The deal: Three years, $33 million

Grade: B

After Jakobi Meyers left, the Patriots really needed a wide receiver. They still need one, to be fair, but 26-year-old Smith-Schuster is a start. He's a solid pass-catcher who has never gotten back to his early years' level of play, but he did take a step forward last season.

Smith-Schuster opened his career with a 69 overall score in the receiver tracking metrics in 2017 before dropping to 46, 49 and 36 the following three seasons (he didn't qualify in 2021). But in 2022, he rebounded to a 56 overall score, a solid season. RTMs adjust for the quality of quarterback play, so it's at least in theory able to identify better play from Smith-Schuster independent of the fact that he was playing with Patrick Mahomes. That 56 overall score ranked 39th among wide receivers, for context.

In terms of more traditional statistics, Smith-Schuster's yards per route run was 2.2 in 2017 and 2018. He didn't get all the way back last year, but he did reach 1.9 yards per route run.

The receiver market has been fascinating to me, with Meyers getting substantially less than I would have guessed, and then Allen Lazard and Smith-Schuster following at $11 million per year. The Patriots ended up in the middle here. Meyers is better than Smith-Schuster, but Smith-Schuster is better than Lazard. This contract makes me think less of Lazard's deal with the Jets, which earned a B at the time but would be lower now. I think New England would have been better off keeping Meyers, but once he was out the door, Smith-Schuster was a decent option to fill a major need in a thin free agent wide receiver market. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: As Seth said, this signing doesn't completely take the WR need off the board. With pick No. 14, the Patriots are more likely to address needs at offensive tackle (Broderick Jones, Paris Johnson Jr.) or pass-rusher (Lukas Van Ness, Myles Murphy) but remain a "best player available" team given the status of the roster. And for Kansas City, losing Smith-Schuster is a setback for a roster that was tight end driven in the passing game last year. At No. 31 overall, there should be real talk about the Chiefs drafting the top-ranked receiver available after adding Jawaan Taylor and Charles Omenihu to fill needs on each side of the line of scrimmage. Zay Flowers (Boston College) would fit, but a bigger receiver like Quentin Johnston (TCU) is also intriguing. -- Miller

Buccaneers agree to re-sign LB Lavonte David

The deal: One year, $8 million ($7 million guaranteed)

Grade: C+

I've always liked David, a permanently underrated linebacker who excels in coverage. Like with other Buccaneers moves, this grade is less a reflection of the player and more about the Bucs' situation. Signing David to a one-year contract in line with the linebacker market this offseason certainly makes sense for a team trying to win the Super Bowl. But I don't see how that correlates to the Bucs, who have Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask at quarterback.

For Tampa Bay, this contract takes away $7 million it could spend next year or the year after, when it could be a contender again. Plus the late-round compensatory pick the Bucs would likely receive if David signed somewhere else is gone. I continue to believe the right move for Tampa Bay is to rebuild. -- Walder

Vikings agree to sign CB Byron Murphy Jr.

The deal: Two years, $22 million ($12.6 million guaranteed)

Grade: B

The Vikings needed to add corner help. In Murphy, they get a relatively young (25) but experienced corner who has spent time both outside and covering the slot. Murphy's numbers are just OK, though. He has allowed 1.2 or 1.3 yards per coverage per snap in every season of his career, in line with the outside corner average of 1.2 and slot corner average of 1.3, per NFL Next Gen Stats. This past season, he allowed negative EPA (minus-3) for the first season in his career.

At $11 million per year, this isn't as good a deal as Cameron Sutton's contract with the Lions or James Bradberry's deal with the Eagles from an per-year standpoint. But because it's just a two-year deal, I'm guessing this is really a one-year commitment. I don't mind it as a low-risk maneuver. Even if not elite, a reliable corner is still a valuable addition -- and Murphy's age means there is still some upside here, too. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: The addition of Murphy likely won't stop the Vikings from selecting another corner high in the draft. With only five picks in 2023, there are holes at wide receiver, defensive tackle and cornerback. Deonte Banks (Maryland), Kelee Ringo (Georgia) and Emmanuel Forbes (Mississippi State) all make sense for Minnesota's man-heavy defensive scheme. -- Reid

Buccaneers agree to sign QB Baker Mayfield

The deal: One year, $4 million ($8.5 million max value)

Grade: C+

Let's start by acknowledging that the Bucs didn't really have any great options. Having no quarterback and no money isn't a great place to be and the consequence of going all-in with Tom Brady. It's fine, it was worth it. But here they are signing Mayfield, one of the least valuable players in the NFL last season. He finished last by some margin among qualifying quarterbacks with a 24.5 QBR. Long gone are the days of his reasonably efficient play when he was surrounded by talent in Cleveland. I would have rather taken a shot on Gardner Minshew or Jacoby Brissett, who I think have at least some upside.

The more interesting question is what the Buccaneers do next. They're stuck in no-man's-land with a roster that has some good players but is far from perfect. No quarterback, no money to improve and a first-round pick too late to grab a QB.

To me, the best way for the Bucs to become a contender again is to tear it down and rebuild, saving as much money as possible and grabbing all the draft capital they can. That means trading players like Mike Evans, Shaquil Barrett, Devin White and maybe even Vita Vea. If Tampa Bay plays out 2023 with Mayfield at QB, it is just burning money it could use in the future and putting another year on all those players. That in turn reduces their future trade values. And all for a couple of extra inconsequential wins in a noncontending season. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: It was unlikely that Tampa Bay would have drafted a quarterback early, given the team's pick at No. 19 overall and the expectation that four quarterbacks will be drafted in the top 10 picks. It shouldn't be out of the question for the Bucs to draft a developmental quarterback late; someone like Georgia's Stetson Bennett would be a fit. For the Rams -- Mayfield's 2022 team -- QB2 becomes a priority, and Fresno State's Jake Haener has a high ceiling as a backup and would be the type of on-time, rhythm-based passer that Sean McVay tends to prefer. -- Miller

Titans to sign DE Arden Key

The deal: Three years, $21 million ($13 million guaranteed)

Grade: A-

The Titans just landed some serious pass rushing upside. Key didn't play enough with the Jaguars last season to qualify for our pass rush win rate leaderboard, but if he had, he would have ranked sixth at edge rusher. His 24% pass rush win rate at edge was a tenth of a percentage point ahead of Von Miller. Plus, he had 4.5 sacks.

What to know for the 2023 NFL draft

Now, it's not a huge sample, and his 2022 win rate was definitely the best of his career, but those are solid numbers. It could be a sign of great things to come. Even though the Titans are seemingly in a rebuild, this is still exactly the kind of bet I'd want to make in free agency. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: The Titans have the look of a team in reload mode, and at No. 11 overall in the first round, there is no shortage of options. Even after signing Key, selecting a pass-rusher remains a possibility. The Titans are in true "best player available" territory with additional needs at offensive tackle, wide receiver and cornerback. -- Miller

Chiefs agree to sign DE Charles Omenihu

The deal: Two years, $16 million

Grade: B

The Chiefs are in serious need of edge rusher help, and Omenihu might be part of the answer. Last season with the 49ers, he posted a 14% pass rush win rate at edge along with 4.5 sacks. The numbers are just OK -- PRWR average at edge is 16% -- and yet register as career-highs. But then again, it's close to what the Chiefs got from Frank Clark, and they were paying Clark more than what they'll be paying Omenihu. Plus, at just 25 years old, Omenihu still has some upside. It's a fine signing to fill a need in a weak edge rusher free agent class.

We should note that Omenihu was arrested for suspicion of domestic violence on Jan. 23 and issued a restraining order after his girlfriend alleged he pushed her to the ground in an argument. The case was submitted to the Santa Clara County District Attorney's Office for possible charges. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: With 11 picks, the reigning Super Bowl champs still have a need at edge rusher, but offensive tackle might be the target in Round 1. The Chiefs can trade up or stick at No. 31 overall, where Darnell Wright (Tennessee) and Dawand Jones (Ohio State) should be available. They are two blockers who make sense at right tackle opposite of Jawaan Taylor. -- Reid

Lions agree to sign RB David Montgomery

The deal: Three years, $18 million ($11 million guaranteed)

Grade: C-

This is going to sound harsh, but I don't think paying Montgomery is a particularly efficient use of resources.

Over the past four seasons, Montgomery has averaged 3.7, 4.3, 3.8 and 4.0 yards per carry, which is unremarkable. His rush yards over expectation per carry -- an NFL Next Gen Stats metric that measures performance relative to expectation based on the positioning and movement of all 22 players at the time of handoff -- in each of those seasons has been minus-0.1, 0.5, minus-0.1, and minus-0.1. So in other words, in three of the past four seasons, he has actually managed to rush for fewer yards per carry than we would expect. And to make the point even worse, Khalil Herbert led all running backs with 100-plus carries in rush yards over expectation per carry at 1.4 last season ... on the same team.

Montgomery has some receiving production, but nothing extraordinary. He does have one strength, though. His 94% pass block win rate led all running backs with at least 30 plays with a win or a loss, though it's a small sample. Prior to last season, he had been above average but not elite in the metric. In the NFL, you can basically find Montgomery's level of rusher anywhere, and you don't need to pay for it. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: With Montgomery and D'Andre Swift, the Lions won't be focusing on running back in the draft. Instead, it will be about adding to their defensive front and secondary. They have the No. 6 and No. 18 overall picks, so Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech), Myles Murphy (Clemson) and Lukas Van Ness (Iowa) could be potential targets to pair alongside Aidan Hutchinson and James Houston. -- Reid

Colts to sign DE Samson Ebukam

The deal: Three years, max value of $27 million

Grade: B+

Ebukam had five sacks for the 49ers last season, a career-high, but he has potential for more. He quietly recorded a 21% pass rush win rate at edge, which ranked 11th at the position. It was a breakout season for him, so there are no guarantees he'll keep up that level of play, but the Colts aren't paying too much here.

In general, the Colts should be saving their money because they aren't going to be good in 2023, so it's best to push assets into the future. It's OK to make a signing like this, however, if there's the possibility of long-term upside, which there is if Ebukam continues to improve. -- Walder

Falcons to re-sign OT Kaleb McGary

The deal: Three years, $34.5 million

Grade: C

First and foremost, a tackle's job is to protect the quarterback, and I struggle with the idea of paying big money for one who doesn't do that particularly well. McGary's 85% pass block win rate last season ranked 47th out of 64 qualifying tackles, and it was a career-high for him.

There's severe disagreement about his run blocking ability, as run block win rate considered him to be one of the worst run blockers at tackle last season, while Pro Football Focus graded him as one of the best.

This deal isn't as bad as I feared it might be, however, because he's getting paid at a much lower level ($11.5 million per year) than Mike McGlinchey ($17.5 million per year) and Jawaan Taylor ($20 million per year). He could still improve, too, as a 28-year-old who was picked in the first round in 2019.

I can't endorse this signing, though, because of his issues in pass protection, especially when there are so many serviceable right tackles available for less money. -- Walder

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What this means for the 2023 draft: The offensive tackle class is not particularly strong -- especially outside of the first round -- so keeping McGary for another three years is a boost for Atlanta. With pick No. 7 overall, I've written before about Atlanta likely being out on the quarterback class. Now we can confidently say it is out on the offensive tackles, too.

This sets up very well for the Falcons to look at the best defensive player available when the pick comes on the board -- or potentially trading down to a team desperate to come up for a falling quarterback or top offensive tackle. Should the Falcons stay at No. 8, defense is the move. Pass-rushers Jalen Carter (Georgia), Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech) or Lukas Van Ness (Iowa) would all fit what the team needs up front and help try to build a winner in the suddenly wide open NFC South. -- Miller

Eagles to re-sign CB James Bradberry

The deal: Three years, $38 million ($20 million guaranteed)

Grade: A

Bradberry was the best corner in the NFL last season. Others might disagree with putting him at the top, but I don't think there's any debate that he was one of the league's best. Let's rattle off a few of his NFL Next Gen Stats nearest-defender numbers again, shall we?

I've preached in this space all week that cornerback performance is unstable from year to year. That fact and his age (29) are the drawbacks here. Perhaps the influence of all the other good defenders around him, too.

My counter to that? This isn't the first time he has played exceptionally well -- he was great with the Giants in 2020 -- so we can be confident it was no fluke. He isn't too old to sign what essentially amounts to a two-year commitment. Ultimately, this is about getting an elite player at a key position for a total bargain. Just one year ago, the Chargers signed J.C. Jackson on a contract with $40 million fully guaranteed. The Eagles are getting Bradberry for half the guarantee a year later -- when the salary cap is higher. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: The return of Bradberry changes the Eagles' entire offseason outlook at the cornerback position. With smaller needs at running back and defensive line, a strong argument could be made corner was at the top of their list of holes. But with Bradberry back, they can now shift to addressing the void at multiple spots along the defensive front.

The NFC champions have two first-round picks -- at Nos. 10 and 30 overall -- and are in position to add to the foundation of their defense: a strong and deep defensive line. Calijah Kancey (Pitt) and Bryan Bresee (Clemson) are two players to keep an eye on for Round 1, but Keeanu Benton (Wisconsin) and Adetomiwa Adebawore (Northwestern) are two disruptive interior players who fit the team's scheme and could be available in Round 2. -- Reid

Steelers to re-sign DT Larry Ogunjobi

The deal: Three years, $28.75 million

Grade: C

Defensive tackles around the league are (rightfully) getting paid, but I don't see it with Ogunjobi. He had seven sacks for the Bengals in 2021, but his 7% pass rush win rate ranked 39th out of 53 qualifying defensive tackles, which suggests those sacks might have been a fluke.

For the Steelers last season, Ogunjobi's win rate dropped even further to 6%, which ranked 46th among 54 defensive tackles, and he had just 1.5 sacks. His 36% run stop win rate is above average but not exceptional -- he ranked 22nd of 68 qualifying tackles. That's just not a profile of a player I would want to be paying real money for, which is what the Steelers just did. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: The signing of Ogunjobi shouldn't shift Pittsburgh's focus away from continuing to add players along the defensive line. The Steelers' two biggest areas of need are offensive line and cornerback. With seven picks total -- including two inside of the top 32 -- general manager Omar Khan will have an opportunity to fortify both spots throughout the draft. At outside corner, Joey Porter Jr. (Penn State) or Deonte Banks (Maryland) could make sense in Round 1. Both have physical traits the team has gravitated toward in the past. -- Reid

Cowboys trading for CB Stephon Gilmore

Dallas Cowboys get: CB Stephon Gilmore
Indianapolis Colts get: 2023 fifth-round pick (No. 176)

Cowboys' grade: B+
Colts' grade: B

The Dallas defense is strong, and this move could make it even stronger. Cornerbacks are fickle, and their performances often swing wildly from year to year. It's a tough position to predict. Gilmore hasn't come close to his incredible 2019 season when he won Defensive Player of the Year, but cheap bets on corners who have been great are good risks to take. You know the skill is there -- that means there's a chance for greatness again.

In Indianapolis last season, Gilmore allowed 1.2 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats data, which is average for an outside corner. He also allowed minus-5.5 expected points added when targeted, which is slightly better than average. I wouldn't call a 32-year-old corner making $10 million a bargain, but the Cowboys are a consistently good team trying to be great, and I like them taking swings like this.

From the Colts' perspective, trading Gilmore is a no-brainer. They aren't going to be good in 2023. By the time they will be good, Gilmore would have been gone anyway. They got trade capital to take the money off the books, a logical step. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: The Cowboys' need opposite Trevon Diggs was among their biggest areas for improvement in the offseason. Gilmore will answer that call while allowing 2021 second-rounder Kelvin Joseph to continue developing. Dallas was often connected to cornerbacks in Round 1, but this move frees up the No. 26 selection for other positions. Possibilities include a No. 2 wide receiver, a tight end and an interior pass-rusher. That's a lot of needs, but with eight selections, there's room for incoming players to make an early impact.

Todd McShay's latest mock draft had Dallas drafting tight end Dalton Kincaid (Utah) in the first round, and that would be a great pick from a need and value standpoint. -- Miller

Jets to sign WR Allen Lazard

The deal: Four years, $44 million

Grade: B

Well, well, well, if it isn't a Green Bay receiver heading to the Jets. In the wake of Diana Russini's report that Aaron Rodgers has provided his potential new team with a wish list of receivers, New York has signed one of the players on Rodgers' list.

To be fair, though, another receiver is a good idea for the Jets regardless of who is playing quarterback. Lazard is decent; he averaged 1.7 yards per route run last season with Rodgers, which is essentially average for a receiver with reasonable playing time. He had just OK receiver tracking metrics, including a 45 overall score. His ratings were buoyed by a strong open score (64), the most stable and important metric. His catch score was just 36, however.

The price is about what I would have guessed going into free agency, but I'm thrown by the lower-than-expected deal Jakobi Meyers got with the Raiders. Does that mean the receiver market is down, or was that a one-off? Either way, signing Meyers would have been a better deal. We might never know whether the Jets opted for Lazard over Meyers (or maybe someone cheaper, such as Darius Slayton) simply because of Rodgers, but if they did, add that to the list of Rodgers acquisition costs. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: The Jets were on my list of teams that needed to add a receiver, but more so as a late-round depth addition with special teams value. Adding Lazard complicates the depth chart but gives New York another big target. For the Jets, this makes drafting a wideout highly unlikely unless there are departures from the current group.

Looking at this from the Packers' perspective, receiver is an even bigger need now than it was when free agency started. Replacing Lazard via the draft makes the most sense, as Green Bay has the No. 15 pick. That's the range for WR1 Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State) and could open the door for Jordan Addison (USC) if Smith-Njigba is off the board. The Packers are notorious for not drafting wideouts in Round 1, however, and could look for a running mate alongside standout second-year player Christian Watson in subsequent rounds. It's a deep but not outstanding receiver class, but Round 2 targets such as Rashee Rice (SMU) or Josh Downs (North Carolina) would fit in Green Bay. -- Miller

Giants trading for TE Darren Waller

New York Giants get: TE Darren Waller
Las Vegas Raiders get: 2023 third-round pick (No. 100)

Giants' grade: B-
Raiders' grade: B

The Giants had to get better pass-catchers. In Waller, they get a tight end with star upside ... with major risk.

Let's start with the good. Waller has been tremendously productive, recording 2.5 and 2.4 yards per route run in 2019 and 2020, which ranked fourth and second at tight end in those seasons, respectively. That production was backed up by the play-to-play evaluation of our receiver tracking metrics (RTM), which gave him an overall score of 60 and 73 in those two seasons, with an above-average ability to get open and make the catch -- relative to tight ends and wide receivers. In other words: a star tight end.

The bad news is that since then, Waller's play, production and health have dropped off. His yards per route run fell to 1.8 in 2021 and 1.7 in 2022. His RTM overall scores fell to 44 in 2021 before ticking up to 53 in 2022 in a small sample. The 30-year-old played in only 19 games across the two seasons as he battled knee, back and hamstring injuries.

We can easily imagine that Waller's peak was 2020 and we've simply witnessed the beginning of his decline over the past two seasons. We could also look back at this deal and think that the Raiders were right to extract value while they could and that the Giants gave up a third-round pick for a declining player. Or, what if Waller stays healthy and is rejuvenated in New York, returning to his previous form and has another couple of years of strong play? I don't know which way this will go, but either is plausible. If I'm handicapping it, I'd speculate the former is more likely. If it works out, though, the upside is higher than the downside is low.

Waller will cost the Giants $12.475 million this year, $12 million in 2024, $13 million in 2025 and $15 million in 2026, with only $11 million guaranteed this season, which means there's minimal salary cap downside if it doesn't work out and he can be a value if he returns to form.

In general, I like the idea of going after a tight end right now. Wide receivers are expensive, and the Giants need someone to catch the ball, so receiving tight ends have value. The issue I take with the move is there was a better option out there for the Giants -- for less. In fact, the Raiders took it. Jakobi Meyers was a better receiver than Waller, and he's younger. He cost the Raiders $11 million per year, and they didn't have to give up a third-round pick.

From the Raiders' perspective, if they felt they could just sub in Meyers for Waller and get a third-round pick out of it, that makes sense. In actuality, I'd be tempted to keep both, because teams can never have too many receiving options. At the same time, Las Vegas' timeline might take a longer view -- they could draft a quarterback at No. 7 -- and therefore getting what they can on a 30-year-old declining tight end now makes some sense. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: The Giants were often linked to tight ends in the first three rounds of this draft given how loaded the class is at the position. With Waller now in the fold, they get a proven starter and can keep Daniel Bellinger, who had a solid rookie season, in a TE2 role.

For the Raiders -- a team that wants a more traditional tight end who can run block and catch passes -- tight end becomes an area of need with Foster Moreau a free agent. It's unlikely a tight end would be selected at No. 7, but with two selections in the third round now -- picks 70 and 100 -- the Raiders could look to tap into a deep class. Tucker Kraft (San Diego State) fits the model of what Josh McDaniels likes. Should Las Vegas swing for a tight end earlier in the draft, Round 2 could offer Michael Mayer (Notre Dame), Luke Musgrave (Oregon State) and Darnell Washington (Georgia) with pick No. 38. -- Miller

Seahawks to sign DT Dre'Mont Jones

The deal: Three years, $51 million ($30 million guaranteed)

Grade: B

I wondered how similar Jones' contract would look to Zach Allen's deal with the Broncos, considering how similar the players' stats are overall. Both are 2019 third-round picks who play 3- or 4-technique and broke out in 2022. Jones' 16% pass rush win rate ranked sixth among defensive tackles, while Allen's 15% ranked eighth.

And like Allen's, I think Javon Hargrave's contract in 2020 is a decent comp, with Jones making slightly more once adjusted for cap inflation. In both cases, I think I would squeamishly make the deal, feeling like these are expensive contracts that still have a chance to have good value.

The other reason why I'm OK with this: Seattle really needs the pass-rush help. The Seahawks' 34% pass rush win rate last season ranked 28th in the league. And with such little edge rushing help out there in free agency, it makes sense they would look for an interior disruptor. Jones also has the flexibility to play edge, which he did at times in Denver. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: The Seahawks signing Jones has major draft implications. Addressing the interior of the defensive line was a major focus this offseason, and defensive tackles Jalen Carter (Georgia) and Bryan Bresee (Clemson) were two popular names for the team at Nos. 5 and 20 in the draft. Defensive line is still expected to be a high priority, but edge rusher is more likely the priority now in Round 1. Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech), Myles Murphy (Clemson), Lukas Van Ness (Iowa) and Nolan Smith (Georgia) are four Day 1 names to know for Seattle, and I like BJ Ojulari, Isaiah Foskey (Notre Dame) and Derick Hall (Auburn) on Day 2; they all fit the Seahawks' defensive scheme. -- Reid

Cowboys re-signing S Donovan Wilson

The deal: Three years, $24 million

Grade: B

Wilson was a solid part of a Cowboys defense that ranked third in EPA allowed per play last season, and having him back will be good for Dallas. He's a strong run defender who often plays close to the line of scrimmage -- he ranked seventh in run stop win rate among defenders with at least 50 wins or losses -- and his coverage numbers were also very good last season, with 0.3 yards allowed per coverage snap as the nearest defender, per NFL Next Gen Stats. And on top of that, Wilson added five sacks. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: The secondary was sure to be an early area of focus for the Cowboys, who have the No. 26 pick. Re-signing Wilson checks off one huge box. Now Dallas can look to either beef up the defensive line -- Pitt's Calijah Kancey would give it a ton of speed on the interior -- or get a No. 2 cornerback opposite Trevon Diggs. With nine total selections in this year's draft, the Cowboys have a ton of capital to reload a roster that was close to making a run in the NFC last year. -- Miller

Texans trading for Bucs G Shaq Mason

Houston Texans get: G Shaq Mason, 2023 seventh-rounder
Tampa Bay Buccaneers get: 2023 sixth-rounder

Texans' grade: B+
Bucs' grade: B

This is a nice, cheap pickup for the Texans. Mason was considered something of a star not long ago but slid to 27th in pass block win rate (93%) at guard last season in Tampa Bay. Even at that level, though, he's a shade above average. And just two years ago, he ranked eighth in the same category.

Mason is an immediate upgrade for Houston. A.J. Cann and Kenyon Green ranked 37th and 56th in pass block win rate last year (out of 63 qualifiers), respectively, and Mason also outperformed both in run block win rate. Houston gets Mason for one year at $8.5 million, and I imagine if he had been available on the open market, he would have commanded more than that.

For the Bucs, this is simple. They just have to shed money to stay under the cap. -- Walder

Raiders agree to sign WR Jakobi Meyers

The deal: Three years, $33 million ($21 million guaranteed)

Grade: A

The wide receiver market exploded a year ago and the free agent class is pretty weak overall this season, so I assumed that Meyers -- arguably the top free agent wide receiver available -- would receive a major payday. He isn't widely regarded as a No. 1, but then again, the same could be said for Christian Kirk, who received an average of $18 million per year as a free agent in 2022. Given that, consider me shocked at how cheap Meyers came to the Raiders. Las Vegas got a steal at the most important non-QB position in the sport.

Meyers' statistics aren't eye-opening, with between 729 and 866 receiving yards in each of the past three seasons. But the advanced metrics tell a different story. According to ESPN's receiver tracking metrics, Meyers has shown significantly more upside. He's coming off his "worst" season of the past three years in the eyes of the RTMs, which gave him a 66/74/30 Open/Catch/YAC triple slash and an Overall Score of 62 (tied for 32nd). Even at that level of performance, I think he's worth this price. But Meyers has shown more in the past, including a 66 Overall Score in 2021 and an 88 Overall Score in 2020 -- which came with a 99 Open Score. Open Score is the most important and most stable metric of the three, so Meyers' best production may still be ahead of him.

Teams in the modern NFL really need three or four good pass-catchers to win. Adding Meyers to complement Davante Adams is going to be an impactful move for Jimmy Garoppolo and the Raiders. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: Adding another pass-catcher for Garoppolo wasn't seen as a must-have Day 1 addition in the draft, but this group suddenly looks loaded. With the No. 7 pick and 11 total selections, the Raiders are in great shape to make additions along the offensive line and in the secondary early in the draft. And Meyers had been expected to leave New England, which keeps wide receiver high on the Patriots' needs list. At No. 14, the Patriots would be wise to target Ohio State wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba, my top wide receiver in the class. -- Miller

Browns agree to sign DT Dalvin Tomlinson

The deal: Four years, $57 million ($27.5 million guaranteed)

Grade: C+

After finishing 29th in EPA per designed run allowed, the Browns need run-stoppers. Tomlinson's 33% run stop win rate last season ranked 32nd out of 68 qualifying defensive tackles, which was better than anyone the Browns had at the position but not overly impressive in and of itself. Pass rushing is a similar story, as Tomlinson's 7% pass rush win rate ranked 34th among defensive tackles.

Neither win rate is abnormal for his career, and Tomlinson is a solid player. But at this price, he is only a half-step behind the contracts for Dre'Mont Jones and Zach Allen, and the numbers don't really support that. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: The Browns checked the defensive tackle box, but they could now draft help at edge rusher and wide receiver. Adding a pass-catcher with the No. 42 overall pick -- Cleveland's first selection -- could be an option. WRs Josh Downs (North Carolina), Marvin Mims (Oklahoma) and Tyler Scott (Cincinnati) are three prospects who fit. -- Reid

Vikings set to sign DE Marcus Davenport

The deal: One year, $13 million

Grade: B+

There are definitely reasons to be skeptical of Davenport, but I'm on board with taking a low-risk one-year chance on him. He managed just half a sack last season in New Orleans while posting a 14% pass rush win rate at edge, a shade below the 16% average for edge rushers. That was such a disappointment in part because he enjoyed a breakout 2021 campaign in which he recorded nine sacks and had a 20% PRWR at edge.

Years from now, will we look back on 2021 or 2022 as the outlier? I don't know, but the Vikings are willing to pay $13 million to find out. (We still need to see the confirmed guaranteed money, because it should be well less than that.) Player trajectories aren't always linear. If Davenport returns to his 2021 form (or ascends further), then the Vikings are the immediate beneficiary. They would have to pay up to keep him then, but they would have the first chance to do so and/or could land a compensatory pick if he walks. It's a good problem to have. And if he plays poorly again, they'll be out a max of only $13 million.

My general belief is that Saints players' win rates are slightly depressed because New Orleans runs a stunt-heavy defense. Maybe -- just maybe -- Davenport is slightly better than those numbers appear. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: With only five total draft picks in 2023, the Vikings' biggest needs remain at cornerback, receiver and center, so this signing shouldn't impact Day 1 plans too much. And at No. 23 overall, Deonte Banks (Maryland) and Cam Smith (South Carolina) are two corners who make sense. -- Reid

Browns agree to sign DE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo

The deal: Three years, $22 million ($12.5 million guaranteed)

Grade: A

I think Okoronkwo could break out later in his career the way Shaquil Barrett did with the Bucs in 2019. I'm not promising anything quite like 19.5 sacks, but you get the idea. He had five sacks with the Texans this year, but that came while playing just 44% of snaps (a career high) on a bad team, which resulted in fewer sack opportunities. On a play-to-play level, he was productive, recording a 19% pass rush win rate and 31% run stop win rate at edge, which ranked 13th and fourth at the position, respectively.

Okoronkwo fills a need, playing edge opposite Myles Garrett, and I think a year from now, we'll look at this contract as a steal. I'm surprised he was this cheap even right now, considering how thin the edge rusher market is this offseason. -- Walder

Steelers agree to sign CB Patrick Peterson

The deal: Two years, $15.3 million ($7.15 million guaranteed)

Grade: B+

The Steelers lost Cameron Sutton to the Lions but replaced him with a reliable veteran in Peterson. Peterson had a nice year with the Vikings in 2022, allowing 1.0 yards per coverage snap (average for outside corners is 1.2) and minus-11 EPA to opposing offenses when targeted, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

Peterson turns 33 in July, so there's always risk of a quick decline, but he should be a perfectly solid stopgap for at least a season. Financially it's very little risk, and Peterson is still playing pretty well. So why not? -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: The exit of Sutton created a huge need at cornerback for the Steelers, and they still need depth at the position. With two selections among the top 32 picks, Pittsburgh will likely still look to take advantage of a deep class at the position. Joey Porter Jr. (Penn State), Deonte Banks (Maryland), Cam Smith (South Carolina) and Kelee Ringo (Georgia) are four potential targets to keep an eye on. -- Reid

Broncos agree to sign DL Zach Allen

The deal: Three years, $45.75 million ($32.5 million guaranteed)

Grade: B

The Broncos are (presumably) swapping out Dre'Mont Jones for Allen. Assuming they don't also re-sign Jones, they opted for the player who thrived in new defensive coordinator Vance Joseph's Cardinals defense in 2022 as opposed to the player who excelled in a Broncos jersey in 2022.

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Allen recorded 5.5 sacks in 2022 but ranked eighth in pass rush win rate as a defensive tackle at 15%. It was a breakout season for him, as his career-high pass rush win rate before 2022 was 12% (10% is league average for defensive tackles). Financially, the best comparison might be Javon Hargrave's 2020 contract with the Eagles, which would equate to a $44.2 million deal with $29.5 million fully guaranteed in 2023 dollars, adjusting for salary cap inflation via OverTheCap. This is a shade more than that, but I think Allen has shown more as a pass-rusher than Hargrave had at that point in his career. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: Allen signing with the Broncos doesn't impact Denver's draft board, but his loss will be felt in Arizona. The Cardinals currently own the No. 3 overall pick but are expected to be active in trading down with a QB-needy team. Replacing Allen with the No. 3 pick would be possible, but Alabama's Will Anderson Jr. is 40 pounds lighter and isn't the same type of player. Georgia's Jalen Carter is closer but is facing legal questions that could push him off the Cardinals' board this early in the draft. Should the Cardinals trade down and pick up much-needed draft capital for a roster that's in total rebuild mode, an edge-rusher like Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech) or Lukas Van Ness (Iowa), or a hybrid player like Calijah Kancey (Pitt), could be targets -- depending on how far back Arizona trades. -- Miller

Bears agree to sign G Nate Davis

The deal: Three years, $30 million ($17.5 million guaranteed)

Grade: B-

I'm not convinced the Bears' offensive line was the problem last season -- Justin Fields has been a sack magnet dating back to Ohio State -- but I certainly understand them wanting to protect their franchise QB as well as they can. Teven Jenkins was fine in pass protection according to his pass block win rate (92%, 34th at guard), but Davis (93%, 22nd) was a little better. Perhaps this means the Bears will kick Jenkins over to right tackle. Or perhaps they can have him as a versatile backup and sign one of the value right tackles available on the free agent market. -- Walder

Giants to sign LB Bobby Okereke

The deal: Four years, $40 million ($22 million guaranteed)

Grade: C-

Did the Giants see the David Long, T.J. Edwards or Germaine Pratt signings before making this deal? Okereke is a fine-to-good linebacker. He ranked 11th in run stop win rate at the position. His 1.1 yards per coverage snap allowed this season is below average for linebackers, per NFL Next Gen Stats, though he was a little better than average the previous two seasons.

It makes sense for the Giants to add a linebacker ... but his deal is clearly above the market. Long is likely a better player, and he received a contract with just over half the average per year Okereke got and with a total value that is half the guarantee Okereke received. The grade wouldn't be quite as harsh if this had come earlier in the day, but now that it's clear where the off-ball linebacker market is, this looks like an error. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 NFL draft: The Giants needed a three-down player in the middle of the defense, and Okereke now takes that need off the board. While linebacker wasn't expected to be a Round 1 target for New York, it was a solid target on Day 2. With 11 total picks in this draft, the Giants can shift linebacker to a Day 3 depth need or continue to add low-cost free agents such as Jaylon Smith, Tony Jefferson and Jarrad Davis, who were added last season.

For the Colts, after losing Okereke, there will be a hole at linebacker next to Shaquille Leonard who is returning from injury. The Colts won't use the No. 4 overall pick on a linebacker, but they could look to use pick No. 79 in the third round on a defender such as DeMarvion Overshown (Texas) or Dee Winters (TCU) to replace Okereke at weakside linebacker. -- Miller

Dolphins to sign LB David Long

The deal: Two years, $11 million

Grade: A

Outside of the deals for Tremaine Edmunds and Bobby Okereke, it's clear the linebacker market is coming cheap. Long just missed qualifying for our run stop win rate leaderboard last season, but he would have led all linebackers in the category. While his 46% run stop win rate was a little higher than he posted the previous two seasons, he always has been strong in the metric. In coverage, he was decent, allowing 0.9 yards per coverage snap, which is average for linebackers.

He joins a Dolphins defense that increasingly looks like it could be an elite unit under new coordinator Vic Fangio. What makes this deal great, though, is the value. At just $5.5 million per season, Miami locked in a good linebacker at a great price. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 NFL draft: Miami, which doesn't own a first-round pick, just filled its biggest need. It still needs to add at tight end and running back, both of which could be addressed on Day 2. There is depth at both positions in this class. Sam LaPorta (Iowa), Luke Musgrave (Oregon State) and Tucker Kraft (South Dakota State) are Day 2 tight ends who would fit here. -- Reid

Buccaneers re-signing CB Jamel Dean

The deal: Four years, $52 million

Grade: B-

At a position where player performance can vary wildly from year to year, Dean has been awfully consistent. He has allowed 0.8 or 0.9 yards per coverage snap in each of the past three seasons, better than the 1.2 average for outside corners, per NFL Next Gen Stats. And he's only 26 years old. Put those factors together, and it's easy to see why Dean was one of the most prized free agents of this offseason.

I'm good with the price based on what we know right now, as an average of $16 million per year pays Dean as a solid corner but not a super elite one. And it is a little less than what J.C. Jackson got a year ago, even though the salary cap is higher now.

My only question is the Bucs' direction as a franchise. Right now, they have some talented players but also a tough salary-cap situation and -- crucially -- no quarterback. There's a pretty good case for a teardown, and signing Dean runs contrary to that line of thought, especially given the high compensation pick likely headed Tampa Bay's way if it had let him walk. But at least Dean is on the younger side, and the division is so weak that I can understand the impulse to compete. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: Dean's return probably takes cornerback off the Bucs' board in the first round (No. 19 overall). But make no mistake, cornerback depth remains an area of need since Sean Murphy-Bunting is also a free agent. The Buccaneers' Super Bowl run was fueled by a young, versatile secondary that is now maturing and hitting free agency. With that in mind, cornerback is absolutely in play after the first round. Riley Moss (Iowa), Cam Smith (South Carolina) and Kyu Blu Kelly (Stanford) are Day 2 targets for Tampa Bay to consider if Murphy-Bunting is not re-signed. -- Miller

Falcons make a splash with S Jessie Bates III

The deal: Four years, $64.02 million

Grade: B

Bates cashes in with the Falcons after a strong 2022 campaign playing on the franchise tag with the Bengals. His 0.5 yards per coverage snap allowed and 6% target rate were both better than average for a safety, per NFL Next Gen Stats. And he allowed minus-11 EPA to opposing offenses when targeted in coverage.

Safety is probably the most difficult position in the sport to quantify, so it's particularly important to include qualitative analysis in any safety evaluation. For that I turn to my colleague Matt Bowen, who ranked Bates as the fifth-best free agent available and complimented his range. Bates should immediately help a Falcons defense that ranked 30th in EPA per dropback.

The $16 million average per-year value isn't overly expensive, too. Derwin James Jr.'s 2022 contract and Jamal Adams' 2021 contract would be the equivalent of $21.5 million and $22.6 million per year in 2023 dollars if we adjust for salary-cap inflation -- a decent bit more than Bates just got -- per historical contracts from OverTheCap. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: The Falcons were not drafting a free safety -- a weaker position in this class -- at No. 8 overall. They checked off a major midround area of need and can now focus early in the draft on adding a pass-rusher like Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech) or Lukas Van Ness (Iowa). For the Bengals, replacing Bates comes at a time when the team needs an overhaul in the entire secondary. With pick No. 28 overall in Round 1, the Bengals will be in on cornerbacks like Deonte Banks (Maryland), but there isn't a safety worthy of that selection. Instead, look for Cincinnati to target a replacement in the middle rounds. -- Miller

Bengals re-signing ILB Germaine Pratt

The deal: Three years, $21 million

Grade: B-

Given the strong off-ball linebacker market, I didn't feel like Pratt stood out entering free agency. His 30% run stop win rate was below average for a linebacker, and while his coverage numbers were pretty strong last season, he hadn't been as good in that area in prior years. None of that is bad, but there are a lot of good free agent linebackers out there this year. In a vacuum, signing Pratt at this price is totally fine. But it's also comparable to the contract that T.J. Edwards signed, and I would much prefer Edwards all else being equal. -- Walder

Bears agree to sign ILB Tremaine Edmunds

The deal: Four years, $72 million ($50 million guaranteed)

Grade: C

The Bears invested in their off-ball linebacker group by signing T.J. Edwards. Then they really invested by signing Edmunds to a ton of money. Edmunds is a great player, but I can't endorse this choice.

Let's start with his numbers, because they're really strong. Edmunds' 0.6 yards per coverage snap allowed last season was third-best among linebackers with at least 250 coverage snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats. His minus-17 EPA allowed in coverage was fourth-best. And his 39% run stop win rate was ninth-best. But that's not too dissimilar from what the Bears got in Edwards for a small fraction of the price. At an average of $17 million per year, Edmunds' deal comes in below the contract that Roquan Smith signed with the Ravens -- which averaged $20 million per year and guaranteed $45 million at signing -- but is still high.

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Ultimately, the problem here is twofold. First, off-ball linebacker is a non-premium position in the NFL. Paying an off-ball linebacker $17 million is not too different from paying a guard, running back or tight end that much money. Second, the linebacker market was looking cheap. Both Edwards and Germaine Pratt signed reasonable deals on Monday, and there are other linebackers out there if the Bears were set on landing two guys at the position. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: Despite the addition of Edmunds, the offensive and defensive fronts remain priorities. Chicago has the No. 9 overall pick, putting it in the target range to begin the run on offensive tackles in Round 1, and Georgia's Broderick Jones, Ohio State's Paris Johnson Jr. and Northwestern's Peter Skoronski are ideal fits. With 10 total draft picks in 2023, the Bears might also look to address defensive end, defensive tackle, running back, receiver and cornerback. -- Reid

Commanders agree to sign OT Andrew Wylie

The deal: Three years, $24 million

Grade: A-

Wylie is an underrated pass-protector who will help whoever starts at quarterback for the Commanders in 2023. I think his reputation is slightly dinged by Patrick Mahomes' higher-than-average time to throw and pressure rates, but his pass block win rate (which measures how frequently he sustained his block for at least 2.5 seconds) was strong at 93%, ninth-best among offensive tackles.

I do put some stock into the general view of Wylie, but it's hard to shake how strong his player tracking numbers are overall. Even if Wylie is an average pass-protecting tackle -- and I think there's a solid chance he's better than that -- this is a good price for the Commanders. -- Walder

Chiefs to sign OT Jawaan Taylor

The deal: Four years, $80 million ($60 million guaranteed)

Grade: C-

Taylor is an adequate pass-blocking right tackle, but this contract severely overstates his ability. His 89% pass block win rate for Jacksonville last season ranked 37th out of 64 qualifying tackles last season, and his 69% run block win rate was sixth-worst among tackles. Our numbers are not alone: Pro Football Focus had Taylor as above average in pass protection and last in run blocking. That's two different evaluation methods coming to the same conclusion -- that Taylor is far from an elite tackle. Plus, Trevor Lawrence's strong sack avoidance -- a strength for Patrick Mahomes, too -- likely artificially makes the Jaguars' offensive line look better than it is.

This deal is expensive enough that we probably can assume Kansas City won't bring back left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. It remains to be seen what Brown will receive on the open market, but I would much rather pay him than Taylor. This also means the Chiefs have splashed out for Taylor and still need a left tackle, or that they'll put Taylor on the left side, where he has not played in the NFL.

I get that protecting Mahomes is absolutely critical for the Chiefs. And if there were no other options on the market, I'd understand. But there are! Cameron Fleming, Jermaine Eluemunor or even an Andrew Wylie return would all be palatable for significantly less cost. And the cost is important, because the Chiefs have other needs to fill.

One positive is that Taylor is just 25 years old and is a 2019 early second-round pick, so there is a possibility he could improve. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 NFL draft: It's still unclear whether Taylor will stay on the right side or move to left tackle, but regardless, Kansas City has a hole at tackle that could be filled in the draft. Luckily, this class is deep in the top 50. With 10 total picks -- including No. 31 overall -- Dawand Jones (Ohio State) is one name who makes a lot of sense, if he makes it to the end of Round 1. -- Reid

Patriots to re-sign CB Jonathan Jones

The deal: Two years, $19 million ($13 million guaranteed)

Grade: B+

Jones was the corner I labeled "overrated" heading into free agency, because I thought he was going to be overpaid off a breakout season. At this price, though, it's totally reasonable for New England to bring him back.

Jones' 1.1 yards per coverage snap allowed, per NFL Next Gen Stats, was average for an outside corner and also a career best outside of a tiny sample in 2016. His production numbers were better, as he allowed minus-16 expected points added to opposing offenses, driven by four interceptions.

Cornerback is a valuable position, so this is more than a reasonable price to pay Jones. Maybe last season signaled more of what is to come. Even if not, though, he'll still be a useful starter. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 NFL draft: With pick No. 14 overall, the Patriots were in the mix for the top cornerbacks in this class. Re-signing Jones likely takes the team out of the mix early in the draft, given their needs on offense and the defensive line.

New England can now turn its attention to Round 1 pass-rushers such as Lukas Van Ness (Iowa) and Bryan Bresee (Clemson) to round out the front seven and push depth at cornerback -- which is still needed given other free agents and Jones' age (29) -- further down the board. In the middle rounds, Terell Smith (Minnesota) and Jakorian Bennett (Maryland) fit the super-speedy cornerback mold the Patriots need. -- Miller

Raiders to sign QB Jimmy Garoppolo

The deal: Three years, $67.5 million ($34 million guaranteed)

Grade: B

This was a logical pairing for three reasons:

Half-measures in the NFL are often bad, but this one makes some sense. Garoppolo has always been efficient -- even if we have to assume Kyle Shanahan's system gets some credit -- ranking from 12th to 16th in QBR in every season he has qualified. Given his injury history, however, qualifying has been the hard part. There's at least nonzero upside here, too, considering his best stretch of play was in 2017 with McDaniels and the Patriots, when he had an 83 QBR in six games.

This price makes sense, too. At $22.5 million per season and $34 million guaranteed, this is bridge quarterback money; it's a slightly lower average but higher guarantee than Geno Smith received from the Seahawks. It's also significantly less money than Carr got from the Saints.

This still leaves the Raiders in a weird place, as they're not good enough to challenge for the AFC West title but have some stars on the roster, including wideout Davante Adams and edge rusher Maxx Crosby. Las Vegas absolutely still could draft a first-round quarterback, but it no longer has to. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: As Seth said, Garoppolo can be the Raiders' short-term option at quarterback, and they could still target a quarterback in Round 1 in April. This signing eases the pressure of potentially missing out on the top passers in this draft class. With the Colts at No. 4 overall likely targeting a quarterback, the Raiders might have to jump Indianapolis to get one of the top four signal-callers. -- Reid

Lions to sign CB Cameron Sutton

The deal: Three years, $30 million ($22.5 million guaranteed)

Grade: B+

The Lions had to get some help at cornerback, and Sutton fits the bill. Last season, they had two of the worst 10 outside corners in terms of yards per coverage snap allowed in Mike Hughes (1.7) and Jeff Okudah (1.6), per NFL Next Gen Stats (minimum 250 coverage snaps).

Sutton was essentially the opposite, as he allowed 0.8 yards per coverage snap, which ranked eighth-best among outside corners. He also boasted minus-6 EPA allowed, which was better than average, and minus-9.5 receptions allowed over expectation.

It's always scary paying corners because of how up-and-down they can be from year to year, and Sutton's yards per coverage snap allowed in 2021 was 1.1, which was league average. But Detroit is not paying him like a top-flight corner, so this is a good deal. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 NFL draft: The Lions have been projected in many mock drafts -- including in Todd McShay's latest -- as a landing place for the top cornerbacks in this class. That is still possible but is no longer likely after the high-priced signing of Sutton. The former third-rounder (2017) checks off the No. 1 offseason need for the Lions and comes at a salary that indicates the front office believes he's a building-block starter.

With picks Nos. 6 and 18 overall in Round 1 -- and two selections in Round 2 -- the Lions can now focus on beefing up the defensive line and perhaps adding to the offensive weapons surrounding quarterback Jared Goff. A first round of pass-rusher Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech) and running back Bijan Robinson (Texas) could be a reality now that cornerback has been filled. -- Miller

Broncos to sign OT Mike McGlinchey

The deal: Five years, $87.5 million ($50 million guaranteed)

Grade: C

The Broncos want to protect Russell Wilson, but the cost of this contract overrates McGlinchey, who is solid but not elite.

McGlinchey's 90% pass block win rate (PBWR) made him a median pass-blocking tackle last season, ranking 32nd out of 64 qualifiers at the position. It was not a down season, however, as his PBWR in each of the previous two seasons was 85%. In fact, he only has put up a top-10 PBWR season once -- in 2019. His run block win rate, however, jumped up to 81% in 2022 and ranked fifth among all tackles.

The 28-year-old McGlinchey is a known quantity and has plenty of NFL years left. But if I ran the Broncos, I'd much rather re-sign Cameron Fleming or bring in Jermaine Eluemunor or Andrew Wylie for a fraction of this price. -- Walder

49ers to sign DT Javon Hargrave

The deal: Four years, $84 million ($40 million guaranteed)

Grade: B+

The 49ers' defensive front is still stacked. The Niners splashed out on a legitimate star in Hargrave to bolster a pass rush that already features reigning MVP Nick Bosa and tackle Arik Armstead. Hargrave is a difference-maker; his 11 sacks last season were a career-high, but it was backed up by a strong 17% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle -- third-best in the league -- which showed his impact on a play-to-play basis. And it wasn't unique, as he ranked third in the metric in 2021 and sixth in 2020. The only downside to this deal is his age -- he's 30.

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This is obviously a lot of money, but the deal is in line with or maybe a shade less than what we should expect in the market. If we adjust for salary cap inflation, Hargrave's deal is slightly pricier in terms of guarantees and APY than Grady Jarrett's deal with the Falcons last year but slightly less expensive than DeForest Buckner or Chris Jones' deals in 2020 or Jonathan Allen's contract in 2021, according to historical contracts from OverTheCap.

That's a group that makes sense for Hargrave to be in, and he's a better player than Allen and Buckner were at the time of their deals. Hargrave is also getting less guaranteed money and at a lower average than Daron Payne, who signed a four-year, $90 million deal Sunday, despite being better (but older).

The Niners' path to success is with a quarterback on a rookie contract -- whomever that may be -- which means loading up everywhere else. Hargrave fits the strategy, making this defense even scarier. -- Walder

Falcons to sign DT David Onyemata

The deal: Three years, $35 million ($24.5 million guaranteed)

Grade: C

In a loaded defensive tackle market, this looks like an overpay for Onyemata. The numbers don't suggest he's a game-changer. He had five sacks last season and has never had more than 6.5 in a season. His 7% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle ranked 41st out of 54 qualifiers last season, and his 27% run stop win rate ranked 58th out of 68 qualifiers. Plus, he's already 30 years old.

I do think pass rush win rate slightly underrates Saints pass-rushers because they run a stunt-heavy defense. The Falcons need a better pass rush, but with so many better defensive tackles available, I don't think this is a price worth paying. -- Walder

Broncos to sign G Ben Powers

The deal: Four years, $52 million ($28.5 million guaranteed)

Grade: B+

Out goes free agent Dalton Risner, in comes Powers. In making this swap, the Broncos opted for the guard who played better last season. Powers' numbers were pretty remarkable, as his 94% pass block win rate and 79% run block win rate ranked 10th and 2nd at the position, respectively. Risner ranked 31st and 10th in the same categories.

The risk with Powers is he didn't perform at the same level in 2021, so Denver is banking on his breakout season. Still, the Broncos need a strong offensive line -- in both the run and pass game -- to support quarterback Russell Wilson going forward.

Powers got his money, but the price isn't unreasonable and the $13 million average per year pales in comparison to the $21 million per year Chris Lindstrom got from the Falcons earlier on Monday. I'd much rather have Powers at this price than Lindstrom at his. -- Walder

Bears to sign LB T.J. Edwards

The deal: Three years, $19 million ($12 million guaranteed)

Grade: A

This is a steal for a highly productive off-ball linebacker in the prime of his career. The 26-year-old Edwards' numbers were excellent across the board for the Eagles last season, as he allowed 0.6 yards per coverage snap, the eighth-best mark among linebackers with at least 250 coverage snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He also ranked seventh in run stop win rate among linebackers and had a strong 38% pass rush win rate in a small sample.

The tricky part of evaluating Edwards is that he played on such a stacked defense that it's fair to wonder if he benefited from such good play around him. Off-ball linebacker is not a premium position either, but again, the financial commitment from the Bears here is minimal and much less than I thought he would go for -- even given the crowded linebacker market. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: The Bears have four picks inside the first two rounds of April's draft, and signing Edwards allows them to focus on their biggest weakness -- the trenches. This is a down 2023 linebacker class, so taking an offensive or defensive lineman should be in play with all of those selections. Edge rusher Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech) and offensive tackle/guard Peter Skoronski (Northwestern) are potential options at No. 9 overall. -- Reid

Falcons trading for TE Jonnu Smith

Atlanta Falcons get: TE Jonnu Smith
New England Patriots get: 2023 seventh-rounder

Falcons' grade: C-
Patriots' grade: A-

We got a second-string tight end trade! The key here is that Smith is reworking his contract, because he was slated to make $11 million in salary and roster bonuses in 2023, which is way too much for him. But $6.25 million is guaranteed, so there's no way he's getting less than that, and I don't think he's worth that price based on production. Smith has been incredibly disappointing since signing with New England as a free agent two years ago, recording just 294 and 245 receiving yards in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Looking back at it now, there's evidence that his breakout 448-yard, nine-touchdown (including one rushing) performance in 2020 with the Titans wasn't anything special.

While Smith was a good at generating yards after the catch in 2020, he posted an Open Score and Catch Score of 15 and 13, respectively -- both bottom-three numbers among tight ends. And he hasn't been targeted enough to even qualify there in either of his seasons with New England. Smith also ranked last out of 45 qualifying tight ends in run block win rate last season.

Just like in New England, Smith won't be at the top of the depth chart -- that's Kyle Pitts' spot. While the Falcons need more pass-catchers for whoever plays quarterback for them next year, I'm not sure they needed to give up anything (either a seventh-round pick or the money) for a player who appears to be replacement level. Assuming the Patriots were able to get a rid of Smith's 2023 guaranteed money, this is an easy win for them. -- Walder

Commanders re-signing DT Daron Payne

The deal: Four years, $90 million ($46 million guaranteed at signing)

Grade: C

Following Payne's breakout performance in 2022, the Commanders weren't willing to let him hit free agency. He recorded 11.5 sacks, more than doubling his career-high in a season to that point (five). And his 13% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle ranked 12th in the league and also was a career-high. Washington was the only team in the league with two top-15 players in pass rush win rate at defensive tackle, with Jonathan Allen being the other.

But should Washington have extended him or just kept him on the franchise tag? At this price, I think the latter. Payne's $46 million fully guaranteed at signing is far more than the $19 million the Commanders would have paid had they simply let Payne play on the tag in 2023. Plus, an additional $9 million of 2025 money in this deal becomes fully guaranteed in March 2024. While another strong season from Payne would have made him more costly a year from now, that performance is far from a guarantee. He has only hit double-digit sacks once in five seasons. Guaranteeing the additional $27 million seems like an unnecessary risk when playing out the tag was available. -- Walder

Rams trade CB Jalen Ramsey to Dolphins

Los Angeles Rams get: No. 77 pick, TE Hunter Long
Miami Dolphins get: CB Jalen Ramsey

Rams' grade: B
Dolphins' grade: A-

The Dolphins just signaled they're going for it in 2023. As they should. Their 2022 season ended poorly -- with an exit in the wild-card round -- but in the process they revealed tremendous upside.

When quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was on the field, Miami recorded 0.13 expected points added (EPA) per play -- more than the Bills with Josh Allen (0.12) or the Bengals with Joe Burrow (0.08). The Dolphins' defense was middling, however, despite serious players on that side of the ball, including corner Xavien Howard, edge rusher Jaelan Phillips, safety Jevon Holland and (after the trade deadline) pass-rusher Bradley Chubb.

All of that shows this is a team with Super Bowl potential. Tagovailoa's health remains a question mark for the future, but this move shows they're trying to maximize his value on a rookie contract. It's best to build strength in the roster now and assume he'll be able to play a full season. Hence, a superstar addition to a defense now coached by Vic Fangio.

The Dolphins are getting good value for Ramsey because he is coming off a tough season. He allowed 1.5 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats, worse than the league average for corners (1.2). Despite intercepting four passes, he allowed plus-7 EPA overall when he was the nearest defender in coverage.

Corners are notoriously variant from year to year, and Ramsey's long track record of greatness and relative youth (he's 28) makes me believe he and Howard have an excellent opportunity to rebound, particularly playing with each other. This could be the best corner pairing in the league next season. And with Fangio at the helm, this defense has tremendous upside.

Yes, Miami is giving up a pick to pay a player, which is never ideal, but it's only a third-rounder and it is getting Ramsey at below market value.

For the Rams, this is a cost-saving measure. Is it a sign of more cuts to come? It should be. They should recognize this might be their last opportunity to cash in big on a teardown. If they really want to turn things around, their next moves should be cutting quarterback Matthew Stafford and trading receiver Cooper Kupp and defensive tackle Aaron Donald, as painful as that sounds.

Stafford's minuscule $1.5 million salary is already guaranteed, but if the Rams don't cut him, they'll be committing an additional $57 million guaranteed for future seasons. As for Kupp and Donald, trading them would mean not paying them their big salaries, but the real payoff would be the draft capital in return. If they don't make these moves, they'll simply be a weaker, older version of their 2022 team, which went 5-12.

The Rams' grade here gives the benefit of the doubt that more rebuilding moves will follow. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: With the release of cornerback Byron Jones and the limited growth of Noah Igbinoghene, the Dolphins needed to add a starter this offseason. Trading for Ramsey crosses off their biggest need and allows them to focus on running back as the next priority. Miami doesn't own a first-round selection but picks at No. 51 overall.

For the Rams, cornerback now becomes a huge need for 2023. The Rams' first pick comes in Round 2, at No. 36 overall, and it could target corners such as Kelee Ringo (Georgia) and Julius Brents (Kansas State) there. L.A. also now has two third-round picks. -- Miller

Texans sign WR Robert Woods

The deal: Two years, $15.25 million ($10 million guaranteed)

Grade: B+

Signing Woods is a solid early grab in a shallow free agent wide receiver market. The Texans are about to have a new quarterback, which means it's both go-time for building the roster and that it's particularly critical to have competent receiver play to support the incoming young signal-caller. The team's best wide receiver, Brandin Cooks, requested a trade during the 2022 season and has said he doesn't want to be part of a rebuild.

Woods is more solid than his 527 yards last year would suggest. Those numbers came in a run-first Titans offense, but Woods actually put up his best Open Score (71) since the receiver tracking metrics began in 2017 (his Catch Score was also at a low (34) but Open Score is both more important and more stable). Last year was also his first back from a torn ACL suffered in November 2021, so Woods might improve with more time after that injury.

Locking in Woods for just $10 million guaranteed is a fine price in the modern (read: pricy) wide receiver market and ensures Houston doesn't get shutout from it. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: This signing likely doesn't take the Texans -- who own the Nos. 2 and 12 picks in April's draft -- out of the market for a young pass-catcher. With Cooks potentially on the way out and John Metchie III working his way back after missing his entire rookie season, they still have plenty of holes to fill. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State), Jordan Addison (USC) and Quentin Johnston (TCU) should all be options for Houston's second first-rounder. Adding a defender could also be in play as well. -- Reid

Bears trading No. 1 overall pick to Panthers

Carolina Panthers get: No. 1 pick
Chicago Bears get: WR DJ Moore, No. 9 pick, No. 61 pick, 2024 first-rounder, 2025 second-rounder

Panthers' grade: B-
Bears' grade: B+

Considering teams essentially can't win without a high-end quarterback, it makes sense to move mountains to get any player who has a chance to be one. That's what's happened here, because Carolina absolutely paid a hefty price for the right to move up to the No. 1 overall pick. In a vacuum, it is an overpay, but that was always going to be the case for any move up to No. 1. By our approximate value-based draft chart, the Panthers overpaid by the equivalent of a sixth overall selection before even accounting for the inclusion of Moore. However, that calculation doesn't know Carolina is trading up for a QB, which changes everything. Quarterbacks have a far higher ceiling than any other position.

Still, this is a lot. Carolina needed to come away from this offseason with a potential long-term quarterback, but is this the right path? There were at least two other reasonable alternatives.

First, the Panthers could have traded up for a lower pick, like the Arizona Cardinals' No. 3 selection. That would be banking on the fact that draft picks are weighted dart throws and the chance of the first QB being better than the third may not be that high. As of this moment, it isn't clear which signal-caller Carolina wants, which is evidence that there isn't one crystal clear top prospect. How does Carolina view the entire QB class, along with the price Arizona would have charged? Second, the Panthers could have gone after Lamar Jackson. Consider that the Panthers are about to use two first-round picks, two second-round picks and a high-end receiver to land a rookie passer. That's less than they would spend on Jackson, though they'd of course have to pay him a substantial amount of money. They at least already know Jackson is a good quarterback!

The last pain point for Carolina here is giving up Moore. He caught 63 passes for 888 yards and seven TDs last season. Carolina is now without much receiving talent for its new QB and no longer has a first- or second-round pick to draft a wideout.

In terms of timing, this is pretty ideal for Carolina. The rest of the NFC South is in shambles, and the entire NFC is weak overall. And outside of receiver, the team has building blocks. The offensive line is solid, and the defense has strong players like Jaycee Horn, Brian Burns and Frankie Luvu. Ultimately, there are real negatives and risks for Carolina here, but I can't overly criticize. Like I said, it's so hard to win in the NFL without an elite quarterback. It's hard to fault a team too much for trying to land one.

OK, on to Chicago. In a single trade, the Bears accelerated their roster turnaround and will be able to help quarterback Justin Fields. Credit general manager Ryan Poles for being willing to trade down all the way to No. 9 to gain extra value. Too often teams end up getting married to where they are slotted and not wanting to deviate far from that spot. Once Chicago elected to stick with Fields, it wasn't going to use the No. 1 overall pick on a non-QB. Thus, the Bears walked away with far, far more out of this deal than the No. 1 pick was worth to them. And the approximate yield of an extra sixth overall pick is assuming Carolina's future picks are in the middle of its respective rounds. In reality, the Panthers are going to have a rookie QB, which means the chances of their season going sideways and ending up with one of the top picks in the 2024 NFL draft is significant.

I also really like that the Bears were able to pry Moore from the Panthers. He is on a value contract for the Bears now. From Chicago's perspective, it's a three-year, $52.3 million deal with only the first year guaranteed, per ESPN's Roster Management System. And he fills a crucial need, one that was not going to be easily filled in free agency given the weak receiver class. I wouldn't call the acquisition of Moore a makeup for the horrendous Chase Claypool trade the Bears made at the deadline -- they still lost an early second-round pick for him -- but it does fill the void they were probably hoping Claypool would fill.

In general, I do believe the better move for Chicago would have been to trade Fields instead of the No. 1 overall pick. Fields played well last season, ranking 17th in Total QBR at 54.0, but it very much remains to be seen if he can be a top 10 quarterback. And crucially, such a move would have allowed the Bears to restart the rookie QB clock; in their current timeline, they'll likely have to pay Fields just as the roster starts getting good. That being said, I can understand the desire to stick it out with Fields and a bevy of picks. In terms of grade, I don't give a ton of credit for the decision to trade down because it was so obvious and selecting a non-QB at No. 1 would have been an egregious error. But the Bears did get a haul, and filling their WR need immediately is an important plus. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: The Panthers will have the pick of the litter at No. 1 overall, and I wouldn't be surprised if Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud is the target. Alabama's Bryce Young figures to be in the mix, too, but sources around the league Friday have speculated that Stroud is the apple of Carolina's eye. For the Bears, a trade back to No. 9 takes them out of the running for Alabama pass-rusher Will Anderson Jr., my top overall prospect in the class. Instead, the Bears will be closely monitoring the status of Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter following an arrest on two misdemeanor charges. Alongside Carter, the Bears have been connected to Texas Tech defensive end Tyree Wilson in a trade-down scenario.

How does this shake up the rest of the league? The message is loud and clear: If you want a quarterback in the 2023 draft, you better trade up to get one. The Cardinals at No. 3 overall will be the next hot spot for trade activity. -- Miller

Eagles re-sign DE Brandon Graham

The deal: One year, $6 million

Grade: A-

Sure, he'll be 35 years old in April. But Graham was excellent as a rotational player for the Eagles last season, turning in 11 sacks and a 28% pass rush win rate at edge that would have ranked third at the position had he qualified. The Eagles are going to lose some defensive players to free agency, so keeping Graham in the fold should help ease the pain.

The base price is expected to be just a portion of the $6 million max value, so I'm all for bringing back a high-impact role player at a key position at that price -- even at Graham's age. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: The Eagles are owners of two first-round picks (Nos. 10 and 30) and are considered a favorite to draft a defensive end with one of them. That could still happen with Graham re-signed to just a one-year deal. Texas Tech's Tyree Wilson and Iowa's Lukas Van Ness are both potential options at No. 10 should Philadelphia look to get younger at defensive end. -- Miller

Giants re-sign QB Daniel Jones

The deal: Four years, $160 million ($82 million guaranteed)

Grade: C-

I'll be honest: I'm stunned we're here. I assumed the Giants were going through the contract dance with Jones, seeing if they could sign a deal that guaranteed little beyond the franchise tag and knowing all along they'd tag him and potentially let running back Saquon Barkley walk. I was wrong.

Yes, the 2019 sixth overall selection played shockingly well in his first year in coach Brian Daboll's system, ranking sixth in QBR (60.8) and leading the Giants to the playoffs. He was exceptional at turnover avoidance, with a 1.2% turnover rate on pass attempts, sacks, scrambles and designed runs -- second only to Jalen Hurts. He also fumbled a career-low six times and threw interceptions on just 0.9% of his passes, best among all QBR-qualified quarterbacks.

Jones' efficiency and production stemmed primarily from his legs last season, but from a passing perspective, there are red flags that had me convinced the Giants' move -- and the right move -- would be the $32.4 million franchise tag. For starters, he wasn't asked to do a ton. His 6.0 average air yards per target was the shortest in the NFL, and he got the benefit of a lot of play-action and designed rollouts. In two-WR sets, he faced a stacked box on 29% of dropbacks, the third-highest rate in the league. And with all of that, he still ranked 12th in QBR on non-run or scramble plays.

That being said, he was dealing with some unideal circumstances, too. The Giants have a strong left tackle in Andrew Thomas, but they weren't a good pass-protecting team overall. And while Darius Slayton and Isaiah Hodgins broke out in 2022, we can't pretend like Jones was surrounded by particularly good receiving talent.

Jones might be for real, but he very well might not be, too. A year ago, the Giants declined his fifth-year option, and no one blinked an eye. Now going straight to an extension gives the Giants $50 million in downside risk relative to the tag in the event Jones regresses back to his career averages. If the Giants pushed this over the line to reserve the tag for Barkley, that seems short-sighted. Barkley is coming off a rebound season and is worth tagging all else being equal, but the Giants should be thinking of him as a short-term part of their roster and not someone who could dictate the negotiations of their quarterback. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: The Giants can now turn the page to finding explosive perimeter targets. They have the 25th overall pick, in range to add a pass-catcher. This wide receiver class lacks a consensus top option, but Zay Flowers of Boston College makes sense. Jayden Reed (Michigan State) and Marvin Mims (Oklahoma) could be later-round options, too. -- Reid

Seahawks re-sign QB Geno Smith

The deal: Three years, $75 million ($27.3 million guaranteed at signing)

Grade: A

Editor's note: We updated this grade and the context around it based on updated contract terms.

Smith represented such a strange free agency case because he's a 32-year-old quarterback we're still figuring out. He legitimately played well in 2022, ranking sixth in QBR, stunning the league and bringing the Seahawks to the postseason. He led all QBR qualifying quarterbacks in completion percentage over expectation (plus-4%), per NFL Next Gen Stats, and ranked third in off-target rate (11%).

He was in a surprisingly strong situation with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf at receiver -- Russell Wilson missed them quite a bit, it turned out -- and was pretty well protected after the Seahawks hit on rookie tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas. Smith's performance dwindled as the year rolled on: He ranked fourth in QBR in the first half of the season (games 1-8) before ranking 15th in the second half.

But let's be clear, Smith played well. His efficiency numbers don't just happen. It left Seattle in a bit of a weird place. It had overachieved with Smith, but he still represented plenty of unknown and the team is sitting on the No. 5 pick in the draft.

Going into free agency, I thought the franchise tag was the play for Seattle here. One year ago, many saw Smith in the Jacoby Brissett and Marcus Mariota class of quarterbacks. Would it be that wild if we saw him there again a year from now? Why not take another year to make sure he plays well again before committing multiyear money to him?

Initially, I thought this deal was a slightly unnecessary risk, based on the initial numbers that surfaced. But the actual deal means the Seahawks fully guaranteed less money than they would have with the franchise tag -- or even the transition tag -- while retaining all of the upside. If Smith plays well, the Seahawks retain the rights to him at what would then be a well-below-market price for a QB coming off two consecutive strong seasons. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: Smith re-signing in Seattle shapes the draft more than you might think. The Seahawks had been connected to Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson, but they won't make that move at No. 5 overall now that they have Smith as the starter for at least the next two seasons. Instead, Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker might be an ideal option in Round 2 as he works back from a torn ACL suffered in November. With Smith a solid short-term option but likely not a long-term one, quarterback remains a need. Seattle also owns the No. 20 pick in Round 1. -- Miller

Saints agree to deal with QB Derek Carr

The deal: Four years, $150 million ($60 million guaranteed)

Grade: C

One year ago the Saints showed irrational self-confidence by dealing a pile of future assets for an extra first-round selection to take a non-quarterback. This year, they're doing something similar by signing Carr.

Don't get me wrong, Carr improves the Saints right now. He's a consistently just-above-average performer who has been ranked from 10th to 14th in QBR in each of the past four seasons, though the fact that he was only 14th last year behind a pretty solid pass-protecting offensive line (the Raiders were 10th in pass block win rate) and throwing to All-Pro receiver Davante Adams is somewhat of a red flag. Still: New Orleans sees an opportunity to steal a division title in the fallow NFC South and Carr gives the team a better chance to do that than Jameis Winston or Andy Dalton.

Does signing Carr get the Saints closer to, or further from, a Super Bowl though? That's the ultimate measure, and I'm skeptical that the answer is the former. This is a team that was 7-10 a season ago with the league's oldest roster in snap-weighted age and one that sits at $18 million over the cap prior to signing Carr, according to ESPN's Roster Management System, even after restructuring a slew of players to push money into the future. They rank in the bottom five in cap space in 2024 and 2025 currently, too, per OverTheCap.

To win the Super Bowl with Carr on a veteran contract, just about everything has to break right elsewhere on the roster. And the aging and cap-strapped Saints are in a position where that's particularly unlikely.

The price is more or less in line with the market for a veteran free agent middle-class quarterback. If we adjust for cap inflation, Carr's deal now is similar to Jimmy Garoppolo's 2018 deal with the 49ers in terms of fully guaranteed money at signing and average per year, per OverTheCap. Ryan Tannehill's contract in 2020 with the Titans included $70 million fully guaranteed in today's dollars, and Carr gets a little less than that but at a higher APY (though Carr's full guarantees increase to $70 million after Year 1).

In both examples, the quarterback in question was coming off a better performance in limited sample seasons than what Carr did in 2022. That Carr received a no-trade clause increases the discomfort for New Orleans, because it can potentially limit the Saints' options to get out early should they choose.

I understand the desire to win as many games each year as possible, but at some point (two years ago, and if not then, last year, and if not then, now) the Saints would be wise to understand who they are and think about more than just increasing their mean expected wins for the next season (as opposed to future upside). They ought to be trading veterans, saving money and prioritizing long shots and variance, a tactic that would result in short-term pain but medium-to-long-term strength.

In signing Carr and refusing to reset, the Saints have committed to mediocrity for at least another couple of seasons. -- Walder

What this means for the 2023 draft: The Saints own the No. 29 overall pick, and they weren't expected to be in on the big four quarterbacks in this draft. They had been a team connected to quarterbacks on Day 2 of the draft, however. Carr signing with New Orleans for four seasons seemingly puts an end to that conversation. Hendon Hooker (Tennessee) and Tanner McKee (Stanford) are both in the mix as second- or third-round passers who will now be off the Saints' radar. The team could still invest a late-round pick in a backup such as Jake Haener (Fresno State) or Stetson Bennett (Georgia), but quarterback no longer is a priority in this draft for the Saints. -- Miller

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2023-04-25 23:01:18