Apr 10, 2023

Prospect rankings for the 2023 NFL draft class are becoming clearer, and I'm starting to finalize my personal board. Slotting players into tiers can sometimes make it easier to compare prospects with similar grades, and it offers another way to look at this year's talent. So I separated the top players in the 2023 class into different groups to help predict when they will come off the board during the first three rounds of the draft.

In all, I have 100 players with at least a 70 grade this year, and I dropped them into six tiers. Twenty-one have a first-round grade of 90-plus, and 79 more earned Day 2 status. Here is how I'm breaking down the best of the best in the 2023 class.

Jump to a tier: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6
Position breakdown

Tier 1: Two prospects

Grades of 95 or higher. Elite prospects. Should be immediate NFL starters and project as perennial All-Pro players. Worthy of a top-five pick most years. I had no players in this tier in 2022.

1. Bryce Young, QB, Alabama (95)
2. Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas (95)

Two players make this category this year, but they will likely be drafted in very different parts of Round 1. Young -- my QB1 in the class thanks to high-end poise in the pocket, ball placement and ability to create when things break down -- is in contention to be the No. 1 pick, while Robinson could get pushed down in the first round because of his position. He's the best running back prospect I've seen since Saquon Barkley came out of Penn State in 2018, but he probably won't join Barkley as a top-10 pick. Regardless, Robinson is a complete back with outstanding contact balance and should be a really good pro.

The highlights that make Bryce Young an elite NFL prospect

As Bryce Young declares for the NFL draft, take a look at some of his highlight plays from his collegiate career at Alabama.

Tier 2: Seven prospects

Grades between 92 and 94. A notch below the elite class but still considered a plug-and-play NFL starter with high-level potential. Worthy of a top-15 pick most years. I had nine players in this tier in 2022.

3. C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State (94)
4. Will Anderson Jr., OLB, Alabama (94)
5. Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia (94)
6. Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech (93)
7. Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois (93)
8. Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern (92)
9. Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon (92)

Stroud is another passer who could end up the No. 1 pick, but I have him just a notch below Young on my own board. And Anderson -- who has an explosive first step and quick, powerful hands -- is trending toward being the first defender (and non-QB) off the board at the end of the month. Two corners also make this group. Witherspoon has some really good instincts and burst in coverage, while Gonzalez can use his great arm length and plus speed to make plays on the ball.

Tier 3: 12 prospects

Grades between 90 and 91. Good NFL starters and are considered strong values in the bottom half of Round 1 in any given draft class. I had 14 players in this tier in 2022.

10. Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida (91)
11. Lukas Van Ness, DE, Iowa (91)
12. Nolan Smith, OLB, Georgia (91)
13. Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia (91)
14. Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah (91)
15. Will Levis, QB, Kentucky (90)
16. Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State (90)
17. Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee (90)
18. Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State (90)
19. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State (90)
20. Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame (90)
21. Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College (90)

"Traits" sums up the upper part of this tier, starting with Richardson. He has the strongest arm in the class, excellent speed for a quarterback and a 6-foot-4 frame, but he needs work with his mechanics and ball placement. Van Ness plays with power and speed, and Smith has really good take-off quickness and change-of-direction ability. All three of these players have a high ceiling.

Zay Flowers' NFL draft profile

Check out the best highlights that contributed to a Boston College WR Zay Flowers' stellar college career.

The top two receivers fall here, too. Smith-Njigba is a precise route runner, while Flowers has explosive wheels. They both have a chance to be big contributors right out of the gate in the NFL, but this class doesn't have the elite WR prospect we've seen in the past. For context, four wideouts had a higher grade in 2022 (Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Jameson Williams and Chris Olave).

Tier 4: 24 prospects

Grades between 85 and 89. Good future NFL starters. Second-round value. I had 22 players in this tier in 2022.

22. Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh (89)
23. Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson (89)
24. Will McDonald IV, DE, Iowa State (89)
25. Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland (89)
26. Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU (88)
27. Jordan Addison, WR, USC (88)
28. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama (88)
29. Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State (88)
30. Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia (88)
31. Felix Anudike-Uzomah, DE, Kansas State (87)
32. Keion White, OLB, Georgia Tech (87)
33. Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee (87)
34. O'Cyrus Torrence, OG, Florida (86)
35. Joe Tippmann, C, Wisconsin (86)
36. Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee (86)
37. Brian Branch, S, Alabama (86)
38. Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan (86)
39. Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma (86)
40. DJ Turner, CB, Michigan (86)
41. Adetomiwa Adebawore, DE, Northwestern (85)
42. John Michael Schmitz, C, Minnesota (85)
43. Keeanu Benton, DT, Wisconsin (85)
44. Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson (85)
45. BJ Ojulari, OLB, LSU (85)

These are second-round grades, but a few of these players will of course go on Day 1. I really like the corners right at the top of this tier. Forbes is lean but had 14 interceptions in college, and Banks' explosive traits were on display at the combine. Both could end up in Round 1. Interior linemen also start lining up here, starting with Torrence. He can control defenders with his power. I recently bumped Tippmann over Schmitz as the top center prospect, too. His range, burst and awareness pop on tape.

If you are looking for speed, two burners rank in this group. Hyatt is the top deep-ball threat in the class, while Turner ran the fastest 40-yard dash at the combine (4.26).

Tier 5: 19 prospects

Grades between 80 and 84. Future solid-to-good NFL starters but might need to serve in substitution package/situational roles early in career. Mid- to late-second-round value. I had 21 players in this tier in 2022.

46. Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia (84)
47. Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State (84)
48. Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State (84)
49. Julius Brents, CB, Kansas State (84)
50. Steve Avila, OG, TCU (84)
51. Jack Campbell, ILB, Iowa (84)
52. Cody Mauch, OT, North Dakota State (83)
53. Cedric Tillman, WR, Tennessee (83)
54. Jonathan Mingo, WR, Ole Miss (82)
55. Sam LaPorta, TE, Iowa (82)
56. Drew Sanders, ILB, Arkansas (82)
57. Trenton Simpson, ILB, Clemson (82)
58. Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina (81)
59. Byron Young, DE, Tennessee (81)
60. Isaiah Foskey, DE, Notre Dame (81)
61. Antonio Johnson, S, Texas A&M (80)
62. Tuli Tuipulotu, DE, USC (80)
63. Brenton Strange, TE, Penn State (80)
64. Zach Charbonnet, RB, UCLA (80)

Here come the linebackers, with Campbell edging Sanders and Simpson. He has good size (6-foot-5, 249 pounds), awareness and wrap-up tackle ability. Speaking of size, Jones is 6-foot-8 and 374 pounds with 36 3/8-inch arm length. He's tough to get around at offensive tackle.

Jack Campbell's NFL draft profile

Check out the best highlights that contributed to a stellar college career for Iowa's Jack Campbell.

I want to call out a few recent risers here, too. Brents has gotten a boost during the pre-draft process with a really good Senior Bowl week and some outstanding numbers at the combine. Mingo is getting buzz as a powerful receiver with versatility. And Strange hasn't been talked about enough. The tight end class is deep, but he deserves a real look in the second round. Strange has some impressive tape.

Tier 6: 36 prospects

Grades between 70 and 79. Project as future solid starters but need time to develop, have limited upside or come with red flags. Third-round value. I had 40 players in this tier in 2022.

65. Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina (79)
66. Matthew Bergeron, OT, Syracuse (79)
67. Tyrique Stevenson, CB, Miami-FL (79)
68. Derick Hall, DE, Auburn (79)
69. Jaelyn Duncan, OT, Maryland (78)
70. Rashee Rice, WR, SMU (78)
71. Riley Moss, CB, Iowa (78)
72. Ji'Ayir Brown, S, Penn State (78)
73. Daiyan Henley, ILB, Washington State (78)
74. A.T. Perry, WR, Wake Forest (77)
75. Devon Achane, RB, Texas A&M (77)
76. Olusegun Oluwatimi, C, Michigan (77)
77. Siaki Ika, DT, Baylor (77)
78. Jayden Reed, WR, Michigan State (77)
79. Tucker Kraft, TE, South Dakota State (76)
80. Sydney Brown, S, Illinois (76)
81. Rejzohn Wright, CB, Oregon State (76)
82. Tyler Scott, WR, Cincinnati (76)
83. Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson, CB, TCU (75)
84. Luke Wypler, C, Ohio State (75)
85. Marvin Mims, WR, Oklahoma (75)
86. Jake Haener, QB, Fresno State (74)
87. Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah (74)
88. Isaiah Mcguire, DE, Missouri (74)
89. Tavius Robinson, OLB, Ole Miss (74)
90. Tyjae Spears, RB, Tulane (74)
91. Jordan Battle, S, Alabama (73)
92. Blake Freeland, OT, BYU (73)
93. Nathaniel Dell, WR, Houston (73)
94. Dorian Williams, ILB, Tulane (72)
95. Jartavius Martin, S, Illinois (72)
96. Henry To'oTo'o, ILB, Alabama (71)
97. Ricky Stromberg, C, Arkansas (71)
98. Nick Herbig, OLB, Wisconsin (70)
99. Keondre Coburn, DT, Texas (70)
100. Daniel Scott, S, California (70)

There are some promising prospects in Tier 6. I love the tape on a few of the Senior Bowl participants, including Reed, Haener and Spears. Haener is my QB6 in the class, and I think he's a little underrated despite being undersized at 6-foot, 207 pounds. I see good anticipatory accuracy on tape, and he has excellent touch, timing and placement on short-to-intermediate throws. Reed is one of seven receivers in this group, the most for any position in any of these tiers. He plays with savviness, can quickly accelerate off the line and has some versatility.

We saw only two safeties in Tiers 1-5, and none before Tier 4. But five land here. Ji'Ayir Brown's extremely high-level instincts and recognition skills pop on tape, while Sydney Brown really excels when playing in the box and can make plays on the ball.

Tier positional breakdown

Draft Ranking Tiers By Position

POSITION	TIER 1	TIER 2	TIER 3	TIER 4	TIER 5	TIER 6
QB	1	1	2	1	0	1
RB	1	0	0	1	1	2
WR	0	0	2	3	2	7
TE	0	0	2	1	3	1
OT	0	1	3	1	2	3
OG	0	0	0	1	1	0
C	0	0	0	2	0	3
DE	0	1	1	4	3	2
DT	0	1	0	4	0	2
OLB	0	1	1	2	0	2
ILB	0	0	0	0	3	3
CB	0	2	1	3	3	5
S	0	0	0	1	1	5

2023 nfl draft tier rankings todd mcshay highest graded prospects class

2023-04-28 08:31:43