12:00 PM ET

ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN's proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for Tuesday are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.

What you need to know for Wednesday's games

Basketball fans are presented with a compelling four-game playoff slate tonight. Three of the four have lines are below six points, suggesting we could see some competitive contests unfold. My marquee player in DFS lineups is, unsurprisingly, Jimmy Butler. Butler's usage rate is almost sure to top 30% as the offensive engine for the Miami Heat.

The most anticipated game comes last, as the Sacramento Kings host the Golden State Warriors in a pivotal Game 5 that claims a tight point spread and a robust total. It's tough to tell how effective De'Aaron Fox will be given his finger injury, but reports suggest he's going to play in what amounts to a must-win game. Eyeing Malik Monk and his scoring and shooting props could prove savvy given the mystery surrounding Fox.

Meanwhile, Caris LeVert is positioned as a solid sleeper for those seeking bargain options in lineups. Since playing a minor role in the opening game of the series, he's consumed at least 35 minutes and 10 shots in each appearance. With a full player pool to choose from, allow our expert analysts to prepare you for Wednesday's Game 5 matchups.

-- Jim McCormick

Breaking down the slate

New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers
Game 5: 7 p.m. ET, Knicks series 3-1

Records (Against the Spread)
Knicks: 47-35 (45-35-2)
Cavaliers: 51-31 (42-37-3)

Line: Cavaliers (-5.5) Total: 202.5
BPI Projection: Cavaliers by 1.9
Money Line: Knicks (+185), Cavaliers (-225)

Injury Report:
Knicks: Quentin Grimes, (GTD - Shoulder); Jericho Sims, (OUT - Shoulder)
Cavaliers: Dylan Windler, (OUT - Foot)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Why Joe Fortenbaugh likes the Knicks plus the points in Game 5

Joe Fortenbaugh breaks down why he's siding with the Knicks plus the points vs. the Cavaliers in Game 5.

Best bet: Under 202.5. The first four games have all gone under the total, and I see no reason why that should end tonight. The Cavs have only hit the century mark one time, and New York has yet to surpass 102 points. The game total has dropped a decent amount since Game 1 but I still do not think it's low enough. -- Doug Kezirian

Best bet: Julius Randle under 21.5 points. Randle had another monster regular season and peaked with a 57-point game on March 20. But it's been all downhill since then and he's topped 20 points just three times in his last eight tries. That includes the playoffs, as he's scored 19, 22, 11 and seven points in the four games of this series with the Cavaliers. Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen don't mess around on the defensive end and Randle managed just seven points in Game 4's win. The Knicks know they can finish this thing off without a big game from Randle and his focus should be mostly about rebounding and defense, while guys like Jalen Brunson and RJ Barrett will do the heavy lifting offensively once again. -- Alexander

Best bet: Jalen Brunson over 23.5 points. Brunson has been the primary scorer for the Knicks for much of calendar year 2023, and he has to carry more of the load now with Julius Randle still seemingly slowed by an ankle injury. Going back to the regular season, Brunson has averaged 28.7 PPG in his last six outings with at least 20 points scored in all six games. Brunson is coming off a 29-point effort in Game 4 and will look to put another big number on the board on Wednesday as the Knicks try to close out the Cavaliers. -- Andre Snellings

Los Angeles Lakers at Memphis Grizzlies
Game 5: 7:30 p.m. ET, Lakers series 3-1

Records (Against the Spread)
Lakers: 43-39 (39-41-2)
Grizzlies: 51-31 (37-42-3)

Line: Grizzlies (-4) Total: 221.5
BPI Projection: Grizzlies by 3.2
Money Line: Lakers (+152), Grizzlies (-180)

Injury Report:
Lakers: Anthony Davis, (GTD - Foot); Dennis Schroder, (GTD - Achilles); LeBron James, (GTD - Foot)
Grizzlies: Brandon Clarke, (OUT - Achilles); Jake LaRavia, (OUT - Calf); Steven Adams, (OUT - Knee)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Why Erin Dolan's Bucks-Grizzlies parlay is her 'best bet'

Erin Dolan is confident both the Bucks and the Grizzlies bounce back in their respective Game 5s.

Best bet: Grizzlies (-4). This has all the makings of a blowout. The Lakers were running on fumes at the end of Game 4 and Anthony Davis did not appear fully healthy. This is a quick turnaround for the veterans. Plus, Memphis has demonstrated a willingness to show up even when most count them out. -- Kezirian

Best bet: Anthony Davis over 22.5 points. Davis has been up-and-down this series after posting two dominant efforts against the Grizzlies in the regular season. In Games 1 and 3, Davis scored 53 total points on 51.2% shooting from the field. But, in Games 1 and 4 he was down to 25 total points on 29.6 FG%. Davis seems ripe for a bounce-back performance, particularly with the criticism he has taken for his lackluster Game 4. -- Snellings

Best bet: Austin Reaves over 15.5 points. Reaves had 23 in Monday's Game 4 as well as Game 1 of this series, and scored 12 and 13 points in the other two games. The key for him to score is getting up shots and making 3-pointers, as he hit at least two triples in each of his 23-point games. The Lakers smell blood in the water with a 3-1 lead and Reaves hitting a few from beyond the arc would go a long way to helping them finish this on Wednesday night. I wouldn't mess with him if the line were any higher but if Reaves is making shots, scoring 16 points isn't a big ask. -- Alexander

Best bet: Ja Morant over 27.5 points. Morant has two pedestrian games and one masterful performance in this series thus far, with one game missed due to injury. The Grizzlies have their backs to the wall and must win to keep their season alive. I look for Morant to go hard in Game 5, closer to his 45-point Game 3 than his 19-point Game 4. -- Snellings

Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks
Game 5: 9:30 p.m. ET, Heat lead series 3-1

Records (Against the Spread)
Heat: 44-38 (30-49-3)
Bucks: 58-24 (42-34-6)

Line: Bucks (-11.5) Total: 219.5
BPI Projection: Bucks by 8.9
Money Line: Heat (+430), Bucks (-600)

Injury Report:
Heat: Bam Adebayo, (GTD - Hamstring); Tyler Herro, (OUT - Hand); Victor Oladipo, (OUT - Knee)
Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, (GTD - Back)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Best bet: Jimmy Butler over 29.5 points. In the Heat's three wins in this series Butler has scored 35, 30 and 56 points, so the Heat know that he'll have to have the ball in his hands if they're going to continue their winning ways. He also scored 25 points in the loss and he's shooting 62.5 percent for the series.

Editor's Picks

This is not regular-season Butler we're seeing. He's a different animal in the playoffs and while I doubt he explodes for another monster game like he had on Monday, a 30-point night seems to be in order for a game the Heat probably feel like they have to win. If they lose, they'll be in a must-win situation back in Miami for Game 6, with a Game 7 looming back in Milwaukee if they can't close it out in one of the next two. Butler has to go off again tonight if the Heat are going to win. -- Alexander

Best bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo over 17.5 total rebounds + assists. Giannis has played two full games against the Heat this season, and has triple-doubles in both of them. Plus, the Heat force Giannis to expend a lot of energy and physicality to get to the rim and score. With his back still a question mark, I look for Giannis to continue to draw the defense and kick the ball to open teammates as often as possible tonight. He is always dominant on the glass, so if he distributes the ball as well that 17.5 number is very reachable. -- Snellings

Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings
Game 5 10 p.m. ET, Series tied 2-2

Records (Against the Spread)
Warriors: 44-38 (39-42-1)
Kings: 48-34 (45-37-0)

Line: Warriors (-2) Total: 234.5
BPI Projection: Kings by 1.3
Money Line: Warriors (-125), Kings (+105)

Injury Report:
Warriors: Andre Iguodala, (OUT - Wrist); Ryan Rollins, (OUT - Foot)
Kings: None reported
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Best bet: De'Aaron Fox under 28.5 points. Scoring 29 points is a lot to ask from a healthy Fox, but he's not healthy, officially listed as questionable with a left index finger fracture. And, yes, he shoots the ball with his left hand. He was initially listed as doubtful for Game 5 but has said that he's going to play, no matter what. I'm not sure how he's going to shoot effectively with a splint or tape job on his shooting hand and I can see him being a decoy, as well as a distributor instead of a high-volume scorer tonight. This one seems obvious, but if Fox somehow scores 29 points with a broken index finger on his shooting hand, we probably deserve to lose. I'm going all in on this one and you can bet the Warriors aren't going to be shy about hitting him with hard fouls on some of his shots tonight. -- Alexander

Best bet: Keegan Murray over 11.5 points. Murray struggled in his first three career playoffs games, and from the outside it looked like the pressure of the postseason may have been affecting him. But, he found his groove on the road in Game 4, knocking down five 3-pointers on his way to 23 points. Now back home in Sacramento, with a good game under his belt, I look for Murray to again reach or exceed his season scoring average (12.2 PPG) on a night when the Kings are likely to need more from him with De'Aaron Fox dealing with a broken finger. -- Snellings

2023 nba playoffs odds picks betting tips first round game 5 wednesday 04 26 23

2023-04-27 02:00:38