11:00 AM ET

ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN's proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for Tuesday are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.

What you need to know for Tuesday's games

A three-game Tuesday schedule includes a bevy of big point spreads in close-out opportunities. Some key absences among these teams influence value in DFS competition and in prop plays; the LA Clippers have ruled out both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George yet again, while the Minnesota Timberwolves won't have point forward Kyle Anderson or defensive wing Jaden McDaniels in the lineup. The Atlanta Hawks, meanwhile, are without Dejounte Murray due to suspension.

For the Clippers, Norman Powell is still a worthy target despite a quiet line in Game 4 given he still consumed a 25% usage rate and lofted 15 shots in the loss. The Clippers simply need his offense. The Timberwolves' rotation will miss Anderson's playmaking, which drives interest Mike Conley in both daily fantasy lineups and for an achievable passing prop of 6.5 dimes on DraftKings.

Murray missing from Atlanta's lineup is arguably the most intriguing angle in that Trae Young carries the highest value rating in my model for tonight, while teammate Bogdan Bogdanovic is projected to produce the best fantasy points per dollar spent of the entire player pool. Even as these games don't project to be close based on betting metrics, there are still several paths to finding value.

-- Jim McCormick

Breaking down the slate

Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics
Game 5: 7:30 p.m. ET, Celtics lead series 3-1

Records (Against the Spread)
Hawks: 41-41 (36-44-2)
Celtics: 57-25 (45-36-1)

Line: Celtics (-13.5) Total: 229
BPI Projection: Celtics by 14.7
Money Line: Hawks (+600), Celtics (-900)

Injury Report:
Hawks: Dejounte Murray, (OUT - Suspension)
Celtics: Danilo Gallinari, (OUT - Knee)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Why the under is a safe bet for Celtics-Hawks in Game 5

Joe Fortenbaugh lays out why he's expecting a low-scoring game between the Celtics and Hawks as the series shifts back to Boston in Game 5.

Best bet: Hawks (+13.5). Since the Celtics are favored so heavily and the Hawks are on the brink of elimination there's a strong possibility that the latter will cover the spread. In my opinion, the spread of 13.0 points is a little high, even without Dejounte Murray. There haven't been any games in this series when the Celtics beat the Hawks by more than 13 points. The Celtics are 3-4 against the spread in games where they're favored by 13 points or more. Murray missed eight regular season games. In those matchups, the Hawks posted a 118.1 offensive rating, up from 117.3 in the 74 games with Murray in the lineup. Atlanta should keep this game close. -- Eric Moody

Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets
Game 5: 9 p.m. ET, Nuggets lead series 3-1

Records (Against the Spread)
Timberwolves: 42-40 (40-42-0)
Nuggets: 53-29 (44-37-1)

Line: Nuggets (-9.5) Total: 221
BPI Projection: Nuggets by 12.1
Money Line: Timberwolves (+360), Nuggets (-480)

Injury Report:
Timberwolves: Jaylen Nowell, (GTD - Knee); Kyle Anderson, (OUT - Eye); Jaden McDaniels, (OUT - Hand); Naz Reid, (OUT - Wrist)
Nuggets: None reported
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Best bet: Anthony Edwards over 38.5 points + assists + rebounds. The fact that Ant-Man has surpassed 38.5 PAR in three straight games makes it hard to bet against him. Edwards is only 21 years old, but he's not afraid to produce in big moments. He's leading the Timberwolves in usage rate so far with 32.4%. Edwards should deliver another excellent performance Tuesday night. -- Moody

Editor's Picks

Best bet: Nikola Jokic over 45.5 points + assists + rebounds; to get a triple-double (+202). Jokic should deliver for bettors and for the Nuggets at home as Denver looks to eliminate the Timberwolves. He's averaged 25.8 points, 8.3 assists and 11.3 rebounds per game this series. Jokic had 29 triple doubles in the regular season and already has one in this series. This is a perfect opportunity for the Nuggets to lean on one of the league's top centers in a closeout game at home. -- Moody

LA Clippers at Phoenix Suns
Game 5: 10 p.m. ET, Suns lead series 3-1

Records (Against the Spread)
Clippers: 44-38 (40-42-0)
Suns: 45-37 (42-38-2)

Line: Suns (-12.5) Total: 224
BPI Projection: Suns by 3.4
Money Line: Clippers (+550), Suns (-800)

Injury Report:
Clippers: Kawhi Leonard, (OUT - Knee); Paul George, (OUT - Knee)
Suns: Cameron Payne, (GTD - Back)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Why Tyler Fulghum likes the over in Suns-Clippers Game 5

Tyler Fulghum explains why he likes both the total points over and the Suns' team over in the Suns and Clippers Game 5 matchup.

Best bet: Kevin Durant over 41.5 points + assists + rebounds. Durant should come up big in this game as the Suns try to knock the Clippers out of postseason contention. Los Angeles lacks options to defend Durant's size without Kawhi Leonard, and he's shown he can be an excellent distributor when double teamed. This series, Durant has averaged 27.8 points, 6.8 assists, and 8.0 rebounds. -- Moody

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2023-04-26 01:00:42