Apr 20, 2023

After seeing just one quarterback selected in the first 70 picks last year, we could have as many as five go in the first round of the 2023 NFL draft. A run on future franchise passers will assuredly start at No. 1 overall with the Panthers and could include four in the top five selections. No surprise, given the talent at the position in this class and the overwhelming need from multiple teams with high picks. Quarterback remains the most important position in the sport, and NFL teams are constantly trying to find their guy.

So how will the signal-callers come off the board next week? We set out to project landing spots for every QB who will get drafted, starting with the first overall pick and ending with the seventh-round dart throws. NFL draft analysts Matt Miller and Jordan Reid worked together to predict when -- and where -- each guy will get picked, debating options, team fits and rankings. They wove in intel from around the league and how each team might actually approach its selection.

And since teams are always moving up the board for quarterbacks, Matt and Jordan also projected four trade-ups, including two in the top 10. Ultimately, they found new homes for 12 quarterbacks. Where will Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and the rest of the top names land? Who could be a mid- or late-round steal? Let's dig in.

See rankings: Miller | Reid

Round 1, No. 1: Carolina Panthers

The pick: Bryce Young, Alabama

Miller: This was an easy one -- at least at the moment. As we get closer to the draft, all intel points at the Panthers leaning toward Young at No. 1 overall. He is my top-ranked quarterback in this class, and this feels like a perfect match.

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Reid: Yeah, we're in agreement on this one, Matt. During a recent pre-draft news conference, Panthers GM Scott Fitterer said he hasn't revealed which prospect the team plans to take. But the momentum seems to be swinging in Young's favor -- and he would be a great pick as the new face of the Panthers. He threw for 3,328 yards and 32 touchdowns with five interceptions last season.

Miller: And I like the fit of Young in Carolina, too. The Panthers have invested in the offensive line and have a great young defense. Despite losing receiver DJ Moore to move up to No. 1 overall, there are savvy veterans such as Adam Thielen and Miles Sanders on offense to help Young find immediate success. I also expect Carolina to add more help around him in the draft.

Reid: Despite a 5-foot-10, 204-pound frame, Young has an innate feel of the position and plays the game much bigger than his size indicates. He has slightly above-average arm strength and isn't afraid to test tight windows, but his best attribute is how calm he plays the game. No matter the magnitude of the situation, he seems to be at his best during the most pressure-filled moments. And for what it's worth, Fitterer said in his news conference that Young's height "doesn't seem to be an issue."

Miller: I do believe there was legitimate interest in Ohio State's C.J. Stroud and even Florida's Anthony Richardson following the combine, but Young deserves to go here.

Round 1, No. 3: Tennessee Titans (via projected trade with ARI)

The pick: C.J. Stroud, Ohio State

Reid: Not an oversight ... we really skipped the Texans at No. 2. Now to be clear, this isn't the route that we would take, but it really seems like they could pass on a quarterback at this point. New coach DeMeco Ryans is locked into a six-year deal, so Houston might want to take the rebuild slow -- and there's a real chance that it has Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. higher on its board than any signal-caller not named Young. It'd of course all work in favor of the Arizona Cardinals, who hold the No. 3 pick and will be listening to trade offers since they have their QB in Kyler Murray. The worst-kept secret of this draft is Arizona's willingness to move back to fill more needs and rebuild a roster starved for talent.

Miller: It's so hard to logically say the Texans will pass on a quarterback, but I'm also hearing that around the league. As for the Titans, this is a dream scenario. Stroud is ready to play right now, and Ryan Tannehill is turning 35 years old and showing signs of it. The Titans have a lot of needs -- wide receiver being a big one -- but can still address those areas later in the draft. New offensive coordinator Tim Kelly wouldn't have to change much, either. Running back Derrick Henry is still the offensive focus, which would take a ton of pressure off Stroud early on.

Reid: Stroud is a polished passer with an effortless throwing motion. Mobility and off-script creation will be the biggest talking points about his next-level projection, but he showed some of that against Georgia in the College Football Playoff. So here's the question: What would Tennessee have to give up to move up eight spots to land him?

Miller: My best guess would be the No. 11 pick plus a second-rounder (No. 41) and a 2024 second-rounder. It's similar to what the Jets sent to the Colts for the third pick in 2018, and it seems worth it for a quarterback who was second in the nation with 41 touchdown passes last season.

Reid: Not only is Tennessee getting its QB, but it's also jumping ahead of division-mate Indianapolis, which also needs a passer. How about three AFC South teams making back-to-back-to-back selections? You bet these picks would be under the microscope for years to come.

The highlights that make C.J. Stroud a top NFL prospect

Take a look at some of C.J. Stroud's highlights from his college career at Ohio State.

Miller: Yeah, and the Texans would have to face Stroud in Tennessee and another rookie QB in Indianapolis twice a year -- both of whom they pass on at No. 2 overall in this scenario. It seems unthinkable, but that's the buzz around the league right now.

Round 1, No. 4: Indianapolis Colts

The pick: Anthony Richardson, Florida

Miller: The Texans passing on a quarterback sets up beautifully for the Colts. Sure, Richardson is a risky pick this early, but he has an unlimited ceiling and has already started to make necessary improvements in his game. I see elite arm strength, size and running ability; he ran a 4.43-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4, 244 pounds at the combine. But yes, Richardson has to continue working on his mechanics and find more consistency with timing and hitting tight windows. He completed just 53.8% of his passes last season and threw 17 touchdown passes to nine interceptions. His potential is top tier, but he has work to do.

Reid: This is one of my favorite player-team fits for any quarterback in the class. New coach Shane Steichen's playbook is the perfect scheme for Richardson, as it stresses getting the ball out quickly, incorporates occasional attempts down the field and features a heavy mixture of designed quarterback runs. The tricky part about Richardson's evaluation is he isn't yet ready to be an NFL starter; he needs time to get there. The only way for him to correct the flaws in his game is on-the-job training, and with Gardner Minshew, Nick Foles and Sam Ehlinger on the Colts' roster, it remains to be seen if he would sit for an extended amount of time.

Miller: Many people won't agree with me, but I actually think the best thing for Richardson is to get him on the field and let him play. He started only 13 games in college, so he needs game action. A lot like we saw with Josh Allen in his rookie year in Buffalo, Indy would have to build a scheme around Richardson that allows him to use his legs to put stress on defenses. And it might even bring him early success as a passer because teams would have to focus on containing his running ability. Every scout I've talked to raves about Richardson's work ethic, so I have no doubts he can learn on the job.

Reid: Evaluators have great things to say about his meetings at the combine, noting how he openly acknowledges the parts of his game that he needs to improve. It's certainly part of the reason we both like this pairing. Developing under the tutelage of Steichen would be great for Richardson's future.

Miller: Yeah, I've heard Indy also likes Kentucky's Will Levis, but this is the right environment for Richardson to reach his potential -- it just seems like a perfect fit. The Colts need a long-term solution, and he can be just that.

Round 1, No. 10: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via projected trade with PHI)

The pick: Will Levis, Kentucky

Reid: Are the Bucs really going into the 2023 season with Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask battling it out for the starting quarterback spot? I refuse to believe that, especially with heightened pressure for coach Todd Bowles to win following an 8-9 record and disappointing finish in the playoffs last season. Why not move up if one of the top four quarterbacks is within reach?

2023 NFL draft

Miller: Tampa Bay has to be ready for a scenario like this, where someone like Levis starts to fall down the board. How do they evaluate Levis versus their current options? Trask was more of a fit in Bruce Arians and Byron Leftwich's style of offense, and Mayfield is a journeyman at this point. Unless the Buccaneers are punting on the quarterbacks this year in preparation for next year's class (Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and potentially others), moving up would be a very smart move in a division that's wide open right now.

Reid: We're talking about a big, strong-armed passer who fits the modern-day game. And as a competitive runner at 229 pounds, Levis can also be an extension of the run game, something the Buccaneers haven't had at quarterback for a while. He just needs to improve the decision-making and ball placement to cut down on the turnovers. Levis battled injuries last season en route to 19 TD throws and 10 interceptions.

Miller: Levis played in a pro-style system at Kentucky and has the toughness and arm strength needed to play as a rookie. Yes, he threw 23 interceptions the past two years, and there will be a learning curve, but slipping in the draft could be the chip on his shoulder that propels him to greatness at the next level.

Reid: We originally matched Levis with the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 7, but they have so many other needs and just signed Jimmy Garoppolo for three years. I think they go another route. So if we reach the Eagles and Levis is still there, it would make sense that teams in the middle of Round 1 would start considering a trade up. And general manager Howie Roseman has shown time and time again that he'll move in either direction during the draft. Draft capital matters in Philadelphia (which also has the No. 30 overall pick), and he would gain plenty of it with the Bucs coming up to secure their QB of the future. What would you expect there, Matt?

Miller: Tampa Bay gets the No. 10 pick, while Philadelphia gets the No. 19 selection and a 2024 first-rounder. I used the Chiefs' move up to No. 10 in 2017 to land Patrick Mahomes as the guide, though the Bills added an additional third-rounder since they dropped 17 picks in the first round instead of nine. It feels like a real rebuild is now underway for the Buccaneers, and having the quarterback in place to jump-start that endeavor only helps. And let's be real ... having Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at wide receiver is ideal for a rookie quarterback. That's one heck of a safety net.

Round 1, No. 27: Houston Texans (via projected trade with BUF)

The pick: Hendon Hooker, Tennessee

Miller: Here, we have Houston trading a second-rounder (No. 33), third-rounder (No. 104) and a 2024 second-rounder to the Bills to jump back into Round 1. The Texans passed on quarterbacks at both No. 2 and No. 12 in this mock draft, but they have the capital to trade back into the first round for a third Day 1 selection and grab Hooker. It would lock in his fifth-year option and make sure no other team jumps them for his rights. If the Texans truly believe offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik's system can operate with a fast-processing, mobile quarterback, then Hooker could be a late-Day 1 steal. It is a huge risk, but I love the bravado here.

Reid: The big question is why Houston would not just draft a quarterback at No. 2 overall, rather than trade away draft capital to select QB5 in the class here? Well, the move could make sense if the Texans have Will Anderson Jr. graded ahead of the top available quarterbacks at No. 2 and don't have a big difference in grade on Hooker compared to those other passers. They could land the top non-QB in the class in Anderson, a playmaker on either side of the ball at No. 12 (maybe a receiver) and then get a potential franchise QB here. And with 12 draft picks, the Texans can afford to be aggressive.

Miller: Trading back makes sense for the Bills on the other side of this deal. Buffalo has six picks in this draft, so general manager Brandon Beane would love more capital. The Bills have needs at linebacker, wide receiver, cornerback and interior offensive line, and they could address some of those spots with the additional picks.

Reid: In Hooker, Houston would be getting a poised passer with great ball placement. While he was limited to 11 games last season, he led the nation in QBR (89.5), was in the top 10 in completion percentage (69.6%) and rarely turned the ball over (two interceptions). He operated a Tennessee offense that focused mainly on quick-game elements in the underneath areas and deep shots down the field, and there might be concerns about how his game will translate outside of that offense, along with his recovery from a torn ACL and what his age means for his future. He is already 25 years old!

Hendon Hooker's NFL draft profile

Check out the best highlights that contributed to a stellar college career for Tennessee's Hendon Hooker.

Miller: I want to reiterate this is not what we would do as a GM, especially since Davis Mills clearly isn't the answer. But if the Texans are really going to pass on a top-four QB (which is what we're hearing), this is the way to go. You've used two early picks to build up the roster and now you lock in that fifth-year option at quarterback with a player who has starter traits. And last I heard, Hooker is expected to be cleared in time for the 2023 season to start, so maybe he isn't a redshirt player after all.

Round 3, No. 100: Las Vegas Raiders

The pick: Tanner McKee, Stanford

Reid: After five signal-callers in Round 1, we go 73 consecutive picks without one. None in the second round, and nearly none in the third. But in the final moments of Day 2, we have Las Vegas taking McKee. My personal QB6 is UCLA's Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and I actually have McKee as my eighth-best quarterback in the class. But NFL scouts and evaluators have a lot of love for McKee, and he has a good chance to be the next QB off the board in this next tier.

Miller: McKee is actually my No. 11 quarterback, but his arm strength is fantastic, and he can really rip passes when things are clean around him. That does seem to fit with what the Raiders want at quarterback. Plus, I have no faith in Jimmy Garoppolo staying healthy for a full season since he has done it only one time in his career. Jordan, what do you like about McKee?

Reid: At 6-foot-6 and 231 pounds, McKee is a towering traditional pocket passer. He does have some mobility, but his game isn't predicated on it. McKee has slightly above-average arm strength, good football instincts and scheme versatility, so I could see him developing in a Josh McDaniels-led offense as a backup option.

Miller: To me, he is a Mike Glennon-type quarterback. He'll be a good backup, but that's likely his ceiling unless he has hidden mobility we didn't see at Stanford. Still, he is prepared for a pro-style system and is a solid value at No. 100 overall.

Reid: And like you said, Garoppolo hasn't been able to stay healthy. He just signed a $67.5 million deal with the Raiders this offseason, so passing on a quarterback earlier to fill other needs makes sense. But Garoppolo has missed time in nearly every season of his career, including the final five games of the 2022 season because of a broken foot. Bringing in depth should be the aim for Las Vegas, since 37-year-old Brian Hoyer and 2022 undrafted free agent Chase Garbers are the only other passers on the roster.

Round 4, No. 119: Minnesota Vikings

The pick: Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA

Miller: Waiting on a quarterback is a risk for Minnesota, but with just five total draft picks, it isn't in a position to trade up from No. 23 for one of the top passers in Round 1. Instead, we have the Vikings getting a solid developmental passer with experience, arm talent and mobility. Thompson-Robinson can sit behind Kirk Cousins, who is playing out the final year of his contract, and would be in line to potentially become the starter in 2024 after a good season of backup work.

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Reid: The Vikings have been adamant about keeping their options open with Cousins on an expiring deal. They have shown interest in Thompson-Robinson, an intriguing Day 3 option who would be a fit in Kevin O'Connell's offense. Beyond the great arm and rushing ability, his anticipation in the intermediate areas and scheme versatility as a passer stand out. Heading into last season, DTR was inconsistent playing within the framework of the offense and didn't always make good decisions with the football, but he had a breakout final year with the Bruins. With big paydays coming for Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson and eventually Christian Darrisaw, the Vikings could take advantage of a quarterback on a rookie deal.

Miller: If it weren't for its limited number of picks, I could see Minnesota trying to get a quarterback earlier, but that makes it a tough sell coming off an NFC North title. Thompson-Robinson put his best season on tape last year, and scouts rave about his toughness. This is the type of super-low-risk quarterback pick I love on Day 3. If he develops into even a solid QB2, you're ahead on value.

Round 4, No. 124: Baltimore Ravens

The pick: Jaren Hall, BYU

Reid: With the Lamar Jackson saga still ongoing and backup Tyler Huntley entering the final year of his deal, the Ravens will likely be looking for depth at QB. One of the more popular Day 3 options mentioned by scouts, Hall is undersized at 6-foot and 207 pounds, but he has a strong arm, good accuracy and solid mobility. He fits well in new offensive coordinator Todd Monken's offense.

Miller: Hall is my favorite of the "other" quarterbacks in this class, looking outside the top five. He is a gamer with a really good arm. And if you turn on his BYU tape, there are a lot of times he looks better than Zach Wilson did in the same scheme. Hall's plus-level mobility, arm strength and touch accuracy down the field are really what Baltimore should be looking for in a QB2.

Reid: I'd just like to see more consistent eye manipulation going through his progressions. He gets fixated on intended targets too often.

Miller: It might not be easy coming to Baltimore right now, given the spotlight on the Jackson contract situation, but Hall could be a steady option on the depth chart. And as you mentioned, with Huntley just one year away from free agency and likely to get starting opportunities in 2024, this is a savvy value add given Jackson's injury history.

Round 5, No. 149: Green Bay Packers

The pick: Jake Haener, Fresno State

Miller: The Packers traded up to draft Aaron Rodgers in the 2005 NFL draft then selected two quarterbacks -- Brian Brohm (No. 56) and Matt Flynn (No. 209) -- in 2008, the year Rodgers was set to take over for Brett Favre. And if this much-talked-about Rodgers trade to the Jets does happen, Green Bay general manager Brian Gutekunst would be smart to add another passer here, just in case Jordan Love isn't what many hope he can become.

Reid: Love has plenty to prove as a starter, so why not add insurance? Haener makes a lot of sense for the Packers. He reminds me of Taylor Heinicke; he is undersized at 6-foot and 207 pounds, but he is a leader with enough arm strength and accuracy to carve out a role as a QB2 for many years.

Miller: Haener gets such great reviews from coaches and area scouts who've visited Fresno State that my early comparison for him was Brock Purdy ... then Purdy took the 49ers to the NFC title game. We're not expecting similar early-career exploits, but Haener is a similar kind of dude at quarterback. He throws good passes with consistency and is a savvy processor. Since no one knows how good Love actually can be as a full-time starter, I like this move a lot.

Jake Haener's NFL draft profile

Check out the best highlights that contributed to a stellar college career for Fresno State's Jake Haener.

Round 5, No. 154: Seattle Seahawks

The pick: Clayton Tune, Houston

Reid: The Seahawks recently re-signed Geno Smith to a three-year deal and brought back Drew Lock as the No. 2, but there still could be interest in finding a developmental option. I've heard mixed opinions about who the next best passer is after the first five QBs, but Tune's name comes up a lot after his breakout 2022 season. He is a polished passer who can attack all levels of the field, though scouts want to see better ball placement.

Miller: Seattle has a window of opportunity to win the NFC West, with the Rams and 49ers facing injury questions at quarterback and the Cardinals' roster in transition. So instead of using one of two first-round picks on the position, I like the move to get a solid backup in place behind Smith and Lock later in the draft. Tune definitely has the production and experience you like in a backup quarterback, and he has the mobility and arm strength to seamlessly fit this scheme.

Reid: Teams learned a lesson from the 49ers' run to the NFC Championship Game this past January: You can never have too many QBs. Adding additional passers later in the draft is a strategy that we'll likely see more teams follow, and having a developmental option like Tune helps plan for the future.

Round 6, No. 183: Detroit Lions

The pick: Aidan O'Connell, Purdue

Miller: The Lions love Jared Goff, so instead of drafting a quarterback early, they could use those premium picks to build a roster that can win the NFC North. However, a backup is still needed, and Goff will hit free agency after the 2024 season. O'Connell shouldn't be expected to go from sixth-rounder to starter, but he has good accuracy and 27 career starts under his belt.

Reid: Our own Jeremy Fowler reported that the Lions already have a strong offer on the table for Teddy Bridgewater, so they want more options. Drafting someone like O'Connell to provide competition for Nate Sudfeld works too, if the team is unable to add another veteran. O'Connell would fit well with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson's offense as a timing-based passer with good anticipation. O'Connell's impressive East-West Shrine Bowl week generated a lot of buzz.

Miller: I do love this philosophy here. The Lions can spend the first five rounds improving the roster so they can make a run at the NFC North then grab a safe QB2 with developmental upside late in the draft. In a lot of ways, this is like the Purdy pick last year; it was kind of a throwaway selection then became super important once injuries hit the 49ers. And it would be fun to see what O'Connell can become in Johnson's offense.

Round 7, No. 250: Dallas Cowboys (via projected trade with KC)

The pick: Stetson Bennett, Georgia

Reid: How about one more trade? You'll see teams jump around in Round 7 to take a chance on a QB, and we have the Cowboys sending a 2024 sixth-rounder to the Chiefs for the opportunity to take Bennett here. He is one of the more intriguing late-round options, and there isn't a more accomplished passer in this year's draft class. He is undersized at 5-foot-11 and 192 pounds, and I've heard scouts compare him to Case Keenum -- who has become one of the better backup QBs in the league. Teams don't worry about using Keenum as a spot starter, and I could see a similar role for Bennett.

2023 NFL draft rankings

• Draftcast: Best prospects remaining »
• Consensus rankings, position top fives »
• Kiper Big Board » | McShay's top 350 »
• Reid's top 379 » | Miller's top 368 »
• Leggy 100 » | HBCU rankings »

Miller: In talking to scouts this week, it sounds like there is a 50-50 chance Bennett gets drafted given his off-field history, which includes an arrest for public intoxication. But I could see the Cowboys taking a chance on him. My sixth-ranked quarterback right now, Bennett has good touch to his throws and is a proven winner, but remember that he will turn 26 this October.

Reid: Bennett has enough arm strength and accuracy to turn into a Keenum-like pro. With Dak Prescott and Cooper Rush the unquestioned top options on the depth chart, this is just a developmental option for the Cowboys.

Miller: For Kansas City, it's highly unlikely the team would use all 10 selections it owns in this class, so getting out of Round 7 and picking up a future late-rounder fits the M.O. of general manager Brett Veach.

Who are the top undrafted free agent candidates?

Reid: With 12 passers getting drafted in this scenario, there are still plenty of priority free agent options. Teams will be particularly intrigued by TCU's Max Duggan. Scouts have mentioned Sam Ehlinger as a good comparison.

Miller: Yeah, the "best of the rest" for me would be Duggan. He doesn't have great accuracy or arm strength, but there's no ignoring his 2022 season, when he led the Horned Frogs to the national title game. Duggan also is mobile enough and strong enough to be a viable rushing threat. He feels like the kind of project Sean Payton would take on in Denver.

Reid: Louisville's Malik Cunningham is another player I could see teams trying to sign after the draft. He has an average arm, but as one of the more mobile passers in this year's group, he can add another dimension to an NFL offense. Cunningham has the skill set to be a QB3 and eventually develop into a backup option.

Miller: Others who could sign somewhere? Shepherd's Tyson Bagent and Fordham's Tim DeMorat are the final two quarterbacks I have ranked.

2023 all quarterback nfl mock draft projecting team fits seven rounds qb picks bryce young cj stroud anthony richardson levis

2023-04-28 04:31:44